Connecting the Dots

Thaksin Shinawatra in true Thaksin form skipped town to avoid his trial. Although Thaksin is physically in a place difficult to reach by the Thai justice system, he is still very much in the game.

Thaksin’s initial comment also true to Thaksin form as it is 180 degrees from the truth.

August 11, 2008
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced his decision to seek a political asylum in England in a faxed statement to NBT Channel

The station read Thaksin’s statement at about 11:50 am.

The former prime minister said he had to flee to England because he and his family did not receive justice in courts, which had been interfered by his political opponents.

He said there were also attempts to assassinate him.

The former prime minister said he could not trust in the current political system because the coup makers had retained their dictatorial grip through their proxies.

This all translates into Thaksin being a coward and knowing he is guilty. The high Thai courts lately have been operating on par with the best courts anyplace in the world. Their lengthy and detailed decisions that are read out loud leave no doubt in anyone’s mind how they came to their decision. This by itself clearly shows the court’s integrity.

Thaksin has ability from abroad to effect changes in Thailand. Thaksin is believed to be behind the People Power Party (PPP) and they were formed, funded and came to power all while Thaksin was out of Thailand. Thaksin cronies in the PPP will now become the gauge to watch to see how much effect Thaksin is having. If their attitude is unchanged and arrogant, then Thaksin still is influencing them. If they appear in panic and disarray then Thaksin has left them.

Assuming that Thaksin has not given up and is just using a very long screwdriver to run things, then groups like the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) are well justified in continuing their activities. Even if Thaksin was truly out of the picture, the PAD is still well justified in fighting the proposed changes to the Constitution that look to serve Thaksin and others like him by limiting democracy and tampering with the judicial system.

Applying for political asylum in the United Kingdom is not as straight forward as it sounds. The political asylum law is complex and several conditions must be met and maintained. If Thaksin plans to use that long screwdriver and thus making him politically active, it may disqualify him from getting political asylum. Let us not forget the first few weeks after the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin, he was running around still acting as if he was Prime Minister attempting to have meetings with heads of government. That finally resulted in his lovely red diplomatic passport getting yanked from him.

This new twist will continue to unfold over the next few weeks. At the moment Thaksin has not been convicted but has only violated the terms of his bail. September 17 that is all likely to change as that is the ruling date for the first of several graft trials. However jumping bail may be enough for Thaksin to be disqualified as ‘fit and proper’ thus causing him to divest in Manchester City. If not now, a conviction in September will certainly do it. As the dots come together it becomes more clear now why Thaksin was in talks to sell Manchester, Thaksin saw all this coming.

Connecting the Dots prediction based on Thaksin and his past habits.

Thaksin will not give up and still try to get back in power by having laws drafted and the Constitution changed. Most likely law to be drafted is to give the Prime Minister powers to issue a pardon. From there you know where that leads.

This is not the end of Thaksin’s political carrier, it is just a fall back position.