Downswing dangers in Thailand

It seems every time Thaksin Shinawatra and his cronies have their tail between their legs, some sort of violent event happens. The arson attack on Auditor-General Jaruwan Maintaka, signals the start of a new round of random violence to witch the culprits may never be found.

On New Years eve 2006, there were a series of bomb attacks in and around central Bangkok. Although it was never proven by direct evidence, their was a certain political signature to the bombs.

The use of violence is near synonymous with people who lack the cognitive ability to sort out issues in a civilized way. When these people find themselves behind the eight ball they simply lash out. Some is driven by the survival instinct we all have with our fight or flight response. So if fighting requires brain power and there is none, fighting and in this case violence can be expected.

One of the things that may be setting this in motion is the structure of the criminal court of holders of political office. There is no endless appeal as of the past and the comfort of time is gone. If convicted next month, Thaksin gets walked to jail the same day. After that there is only a one time 30 day appeal window. That is far from comforting for a political crook.

So far the reality for them is the big boss has skipped town, and 3 of his lawyers are doing time for attempting the “Old School” approach to getting a case through the courts. Not a very promising outlook all the way around.

It appears from reading the news the People Power Party (PPP) is unsure if Thaksin will be back or not. So assuming the worst they are acting on that. As a significant number of Thaksin followers are in Que for the same fate, they are starting to act on, “If the big boss is on the run, what do we do?!” is no doubt running in their minds. Sending a ‘back off’ messages with explosives and or fire is clearly an early option to them. Unfounded accusation and mud slinging meant to delay is also part of it.

The bottom line is don’t be surprised of increased violence until Thaksin’s intent is figured out by this bunch.

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