In Thailand in a rapidly unfolding chain of events, The Samak lead government has essentially fallen for the trap the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) had set. That trap was to use force against the PAD. By using force any lackluster supporters for the PAD would fall into the PAD camp.
Excluding the events of Tuesday August 26 by the PAD where they commandeered government TV stations, the Samak government used force and that polarized the country.
In a deceptive tactic used by the now fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, Samak made it appear he had passed the responsibility to deal with the PAD to another. The reality of the fact, that was simply a ruse as Samak was still calling the shots.
To summerize the chain of events thus far;
- PAD occupies the Government house compound.
- The court orders an eviction notice.
- The appeals court accepts the PAD appeal thus putting on hold the eviction allowing the PAD to stay.
- The Police move on the PAD and forcefully start to remove the PAD from the government house.
- PAD supporters around the country rally and start shutting down transportation hubs.
- The Police withdraw from the Government house compound.
- Support for Samak begins to flounder in the military and in the government and suggest his resignation.
- PAD re-occupies the government house with swelling numbers.
- Samak seeks and gets an audience with the King.
- Defiant Samak appears to be taking a stand alone position and is openly flaunting the idea of an emergency decree against the advise of his supporters.
Various government embassies have sent out notices to their citizens in Thailand to expect transportation delays and to avoid rally sites. Outside of that Thailand appears untouched. Even events in other parts of Bangkok seem oblivious to the political situation.
Samak clearly upset and losing self control (in short back to normal) once again is taking an aggressive posture however the events of the coming hours and days are too hard to predict. Samak’s supporters have suggested he step down or dissolve parliament. In either situation the planned self serving changing of the Constitution would come to a grinding halt at least temporally. Seeing as for the moment that is the only true goal of the PPP, this would effectively mean the PAD had won the battle.
Hard core members of the People Power Party (PPP) look to import supporters and stage their own pro government rally. However this only adds fuel to the fire as typically supporters of the PPP resort to violence and may be difficult or impossible to control. The suggested rally point is not that far from the government house and the potential they could march to the Government house and engage the PAD is possible. At that point things would turn nasty, and for sure Thailand would be off the menu for the upcoming high tourist season that starts ramping up in Early October only 4 or so weeks away.