In what could be a scene out of an Indiana Jones movie, Thailand’s government is starting to discover the inevitable truth that what goes around, comes around. Thailand’s Prime minister has been dodging protesters, climbing over fences, abbreviated meetings and helicopter escapes in Bangkok. All of this signals the end is near.
There is no doubt that the man who is the center of the trouble in Thailand who now sits so innocently in London saying “Who Me?” wants to use force to end the problems. Thaksin Shinawatra’s signature is that of violence, but it would at least seem the tables are turned. Every time some form of violence is used, the People Power Party (PPP) lead government loses more ground.
Ironically the PPP knows it’s days are numbered, and in order to survive they must wait for the right moment to abandon ship for their life boat. Their timing must be coordinated with the pending dissolution trial. As the trial date is not known yet, jumping too soon or too late will land them in rough seas and not their life boat.
The formula is a bit complex to understand, but essentially it is all about getting properly groomed Thaksin cronies in key seats without pissing others off. Jumping too soon, infighting is very likely to occur as they try to play ‘King of the mountain’. The ones in power will not want to give up power until the very last possible moment. If you can imagine a pack of wolves fighting over a kill that is way too small to feed all of them, you can get the idea of what it will look like.
Jumping too late and they will loose out on the narrow window of belonging to a new party for a certain number of days before you can run for office and be elected. If the court date was known, you could fairly easily calculate down to the day when the Prime Minister would dissolve Parliament. In short the self serving desire for greed and power will dictate when all of this will happen.
Because of this the Prime Minister must now endure the same humiliation Thaksin endured in the months leading up to the September 19, 2006 coup. Back then Thaksin responded with his usual signature violence and that was one of the primary factors that lead to the coup, Innocent Thai people from children to the old were getting hurt by Thaksin’s hired thugs.
In front of Parliament, there is little doubt bombs meant to maim and perhaps kill were in use. Based on past history and the violent signature associated with Thaksin, guilt has already been assigned in they eyes of the public. The forensic findings are likely to be mostly ignored by the public as they already expect the results are on paper before the forensic examination begins.
The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has taken a more defensive posture and is only seen in the eyes of the public as defending themselves from Thaksin’s remote violence. It is not in their nature to initiate violence, but will defend themselves within reason if they are threatened.