Connecting the Dots is going out on a limb with this one. We are looking to predict what things Thaksin will say on his December 13 speech and test our accuracy in predictions.
The underlying reasons behind Thaksin’s desired return are already known. He wishes to return to power, get his frozen Billions out of the impound lot, and last but not least bring an end to his enemies no matter how high up they are. How he goes about it is of particular interest and a bit of a challenge.
First a note, Connecting the Dots starting compiling and analyzing this list on November 19, 2008 and finished mid afternoon on December 11, 2008. We are looking at past history of how Thaksin approached things, how he countered and re-postured when plan ‘A’ did not work and what Thaksin’s habits are to throw this prediction together.
Thaksin’s primary audience is his lesser educated voter base in Isaan. The entire tone of Thaksin’s speech will be to further divide the country and drive it deeper into a self serving civil war. Using that as a base, this is what we came up with.
If you want to test your prediction skills too, send us a comment and we will post it before Thaksin opens his mouth.
Connecting the Dots Predicts the following in no particular order:
- Thaksin will need to discredit the British government. We predict he will cite the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) rally at the embassy days before as the culprit for turning/tricking the British Government into revoking his visa.
- Thaksin will say he did not appeal the Ratchadapisek land case because the courts are corrupt and it would be a waste of time.
- Thaksin will say he needs to save the country from his enemies and that is why he is coming back.
- Thaksin will attempt to motivate the masses to his cause suggesting the Constitution needs to be changed so he can come back to save the country.
- Thaksin will start to name his enemies choosing the ones that hold the most credibility first and the names will be in the PAD and military first as they seem to have done the most damage to him. This list seems to be growing daily with the events of this past week.
- Thaksin will suggest the PAD supporters have been tricked by a clever plot.
- Thaksin will suggest the move to dissolve the People Power Party was politically motivated and a corrupt court is serving them.
- There may be some call to his supporters to seek out his enemies (a call for physical harm). However this does not match Thaksin’s style of being removed from any such nastiness. This would be a sign of last minute desperation if he does.
I would add that he may call for a dissolution of the house pending events leading up his phone-in and potentially any election for a new PM, selling it to the people as “the best interests of Thailand”. Obviously, this would be a strategic move of last resort.
He might also say many people he met walked up to him and expressed so much ‘concern’ about Thailand, especially the recent Suvarnabhumi episode and that they ‘fear for their safety’ too much to visit Thailand again… unless, of course, he comes back to work and bring back that ‘trust’ and ‘stability’.
Of course he also ‘misses’ his kids so much but hope they’ll be able to care and comfort the ‘ex’ who has unfortunately ‘misunderstood’ him for wanting to return to politics which, by the way, he HAD to go back on his words (on returning/not returning to politics !?) because he realizes it’s ONLY through politics that he can help better the lives of the poor people who he loves and worry about so much all this time. *_*