Over the last few weeks the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra has been saying that his life is in danger and he must keep his whereabouts unknown. However the Thai government says there are no such threats.
All things considered, Thaksin is not in a good situation. For lack of a better term, Thaksin is caught in no man’s land between countries. He can only enter a country for a short period of time providing he is provided a visa from that country. For the ex-pats living in Thailand who can relate, Thaksin is now on the endless visa run. So in this case, what goes around, comes around.
As far as Thaksin’s claim that his life is in danger, Connecting the Dot’s does agree with this statement. When a sweet little old Thai lady who sells fruit on the side of the road says he is a bad man and should be killed, you can start to see the picture with much better clarity.
The governments position that there are no threats against Thaksin is a half truth at best. Loosely translated, there are no government sanctioned assassination attempts in place. But there is a high likelihood of one or more privately funded attempts underway.
In today’s reality, Thaksin has a way of pissing off people just by opening his mouth. His arrogant stance most certainly fuels the hatred many have for him, and that would most certainly invite an assassin’s bullet or few. With Thaksin on the run, it does provide for an easy target. That single bullet would also largely put an end to much of Thailand’s problems.
Taking it to the next step, the more active and vocal Thaksin followers are also placing themselves in danger. It may be difficult for some to disconnect the Thaksin supporter from Thaksin. So Connecting the Dots suggests that Thaksin followers are also under threat, although not as extreme yet. So in short, Thaksin is becoming bad for not only their political health, but for their health in general.
Reconciliation aside, there are plenty of personal scores to settle when it comes to Thaksin. Using the live by the sword die by the sword thinking, Thaksin is accused of many deaths particularly in his crusade on drugs. Although the lawyers may have a difficult time making that link to satisfy the court to get a conviction, the same requirement is not needed for what people feel and know in their heart.
As it would be, the safest place for Thaksin is sitting in his waiting cell in the Bangkok Hilton, and not out on his endless visa run. As each country closes it’s borders to Thaksin, his whereabouts becomes easier to identify. It is a bit like herding cattle for slaughter as with each step options are reduced. So the thing to watch for is if the casinos that border Thailand and Cambodia are taking odds on if Thaksin will see his cell or an assassin’s bullet first.