Connecting the Dots has seen enough signals that we can put to bed our series “Countdown to Global economic meltdown” and now pickup with this new periodic series. In this series we will look at the various elements of recovery and make our call on them being good, bad, or indifferent.
Setting the stage, Connecting the Dots sees that the price of oil is the basis for the global economic problem, there are just too many dots that point to this. For whatever reason governments are not acknowledging this publicly. It is the only common element around the world. Countries that do not have nor ever had funky banking practices are suffering just as much.
Seeing that much of the world is looking at the United States and President Barack Obama, that is as good a place to start as any. The big money that is now being spent will no doubt create jobs, but it is the psychological switch that must be moved to start the economy. The ‘You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink’ applies. No doubt American’s are waiting for any good news. In fact this is one of the few times in our lives (hopefully) that good news will sell more papers than bad news. Bad news about other people is one thing, bad news about yourself is quite another.
Already some community colleges are providing free job retraining classes for new jobs. In fact a new catch phrase is being used here. Before there were White collar jobs and Blue collar jobs. Now a third one is being added and that is Green collar jobs. The term green collar has a psychological effect and will no doubt some day be a buzzword of sorts. It follows the theme of ‘Change’ that was the core of Obama’s presidential campaign.
Keeping a reality check in place now requires both a carrot and a stick. The carrot to get people to open their wallets and spend, and the stick to keep reminding people of the reality of the situation. There is no doubt a behind the scenes group of psychologists are helping President Obama word what he says properly, in order to use the carrot and stick effectively.
As for other countries around the world, some are moderating their projections on when the bottom will be found. The concern here is some governments will tell the truth as they see it, and others will out and out lie. If a particular government has a history of telling lies, they could actually hurt the situation.
In reality it is still a month or 2 premature to see any significant change. What is likely to happen will be much like cooking popcorn. First one pops then a second a few seconds later. It is not for several seconds that the entire pot explodes with activity. This will be a key psychological trigger that people are waiting to see. When that happens, we will have turned the corner.
This is part of a periodic series.