After looking at what was being said to motivate Thaksin’s red shirt army over the past few days, it is becoming clear what the motivators are trying to achieve. They are seeking to have the March 26 rally be more than a rally.
Although they may be subtle, Thaksin and his lieutenants are planting the seeds of anger inside Thaksin’s red shirt army. Simply by reading one news article from the Bangkok Post, there is enough there to set off the warning alarm at Connecting the Dots.
Quoting The Bangkok Post;
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has sworn to expose those behind the movement to remove him from power.
Thaksin told supporters in a phone-in address at a political gathering in Chiang Mai yesterday he would unmask those involved in the movement that succeeded in toppling him from power during his next phone-in at a Sanam Luang rally on Thursday.
Thaksin claimed Gen Panlop Pinmanee, the former Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) deputy chief, had provided him with convincing information on the movement.
”Two privy councillors led the movement and worked with Ai Pok,” Thaksin said referring to army chief Anupong Paojinda. Pok is Gen Anupong’s nickname.
”Ai Pok in the past has denied it. But today he has stepped forward and accepted that he too was involved.”
Yesterday’s gathering took place at the 700 Years Stadium in Chiang Mai. It was attended by about 10,000 red-shirt supporters of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and its local allies.
UDD leaders asked its supporters to donate the 2,000-baht cash handout they are to receive from the Democrat-led government as poverty relief to finance the anti-government campaign.
Sirisak Tiyaphan, executive director for foreign litigation at the Office of the Attorney-General, said talks on an extradition treaty between Thailand and Hong Kong were proceeding smoothly.
The treaty is aimed at bringing Thaksin home to serve his jail sentence.
The former prime minister received a two-year jail sentence in the Ratchadaphisek land deal case last year.
A team of public prosecutors led by Mr Sirisak has begun negotiations. They returned from Hong Kong yesterday.
Mr Sirisak said his team discussed details of the draft with Hong Kong officials, although both sides still had many things to iron out due to the different legal systems of Thailand and Hong Kong.
Mr Sirisak said Hong Kong wanted the treaty to specify clearly what constituted an extraditable crime while Thailand preferred a more generalized wording in the draft.
He said after it was approved and ratified by Thailand and Hong Kong, the treaty would be translated into English, Thai and Mandarin.
Thai politicians often visit Hong Kong to meet Thaksin. It is also often the base for his phone-ins to gatherings of supporters to air his political views and rebut allegations against him.
Connecting the Dots wishes to point out what we see as warning signs.
- As far as Thaksin is concerned, the coup is still going on, and his present tense references indicate that.
- His desire to set up a cliff hanger to be disclosed at the rally in Bangkok is nothing more that a ploy to pump up numbers with curiosity. No doubt it will be presented in such a way as to stir anger.
- The tone of what is being said is meant to incite anger and not to provide information.
- Asking the people to use their 2000 Baht poverty relief for Thaksin has two messages. The first is to say that Thaksin is the source of money, and to disrespect money from anyone else in particular the democrats. This is clearly to cause action. The second reason is it will show Thaksin who his hard core supporters are. The second is more of a test of loyalty. The people that would hand over the money will no doubt be used as core motivators to rally the masses.
- Thaksin is looking to target specific people in power as his enemies. He is giving no mention that the people who did not vote for the People Power Party (PPP), or subsequently any Thaksin supporting Members of Parliament in redone elections also don’t want Thaksin any more.
- The timing of this rally was originally meant to be during the now failed and backfired censure debate. So the attempt to relight the embers in what may be seen as a last ditch hope to resurrects Thaksin will be on the agenda. If the rally is orderly, then there will be little media coverage. If there is violence, then every eye will be watching, putting Thaksin again in the news as being wanted as a leader and not as a fugitive.
- Also in classic Thaksin style he will be far away when all this goes down.
So in this case Connecting the Dots predicts there is a significantly better chance of violence in this rally. The trend has been in that direction with now explosives and other objects being tossed at democrats in recent days. The Thaksin signature of violence is once again on the rise.