Connecting the Dots really does not want to go and debate ancient history. We are very content in predicting what will happen next. But in this case where the convicted fugitive Thaksin is trying to make the past the future, we will indulge ourselves a bit in some analysis.
Wipe your mind of everything that happened after September 19, 2006 for a moment and take a look at how people in Thailand saw Thailand. There was immense political stress and there was not a smile to be found. Although people were trying to move on with some sense of normalcy, it was increasingly difficult not to turn your attention to Thai politics.
Thaksin was doing his best to portray himself as a good guy and champion of the poor, but his actions were that of a wolf wearing Robin Hood tights. Many saw past Thaksin’s self portrayal, and many suspected there was a much deeper evil in Thaksin that had not been exposed.
Thaksin more or less had given up on trying to hide this a few months before the coup, and his actions were out in the open for all to see. The attacks on Thaksin were overwhelming him and there was no time to dress up his return attacks in ribbons and colorful wrapping paper. Thaksin was beating up on children and the elderly who opposed him and bloody photos were found on the front page of newspapers.
So back in September 2006 there would of been a lot of pro and con views about a coup based on what people knew about Thaksin. Some would rightly say it was an infringement on democracy, and others would have said the country has been saved from a want to be bloody dictator.
Fast forward to today and what we now know about Thaksin and the coup makers could most certainly be seen in a more positive light if not as heros depending on where you stand. There is one thing the coup did do that was never challenged or denied, and that was to stop the bloodshed Thaksin was causing.
Although had all other threads in the timeline were allowed to proceed unhindered by Thaksin, Thaksin would be in exactly the same situation as he is today. He would have been removed from office when his party was dissolved, and he would have been convicted of the same crime on exactly the same day. All the coup did was advance Thaksin’s removal from office by about 9 months and save a lot more of Thai blood from being spilled on the street.
Had Thaksin successfully hindered those other timeline threads (and there is no doubt he would try), then forcefully removing him from office with a coup would be the only remaining option. This would be to assist in the process of protecting and administering justice, as all other options would have been neutralized by Thaksin. Even considering that, Thaksin was hours away from having complete control over the army and eliminating any chance of a coup thus securing him as Thailand’s dictator posing a genuine threat to the monarchy.
So even if Prem was involved it actually would have made no difference to Thaksin. Thaksin’s fate was already sealed by the election fraud tied with the April 2006 elections and the crime he was convicted of even before that. Thaksin’s efforts to undo the court ruling and white wash himself today is just another method of changing the timeline threads that sealed his fate. The same as he would have done as Thailand’s dictator. Attacking Prem is just a stepping stone towards that goal as it heightens the chance of civil war.
One this is absolutely certain about Thaksin, if given enough time he will eventually name everybody.
On the other side that is purely hypothetical, seeing as any dictator in Thailand would be a threat to the monarchy, Prem would have been rightfully conducting his duty as a loyal Thai by doing what it takes to protect the Monarchy. If assisting in a coup to overthrow a dictator is what it takes, then he should be acknowledged for his loyalty to the King. If a dictator was in place, then democracy would have already been a casualty. There also would be no such thing as politics. In that case, you can’t hurt the dead too much by conducting a coup.
There is no doubt Thaksin is out of control and psychotic or not, his attacks on Prem only serve himself by pushing Thailand closer to violence. So as the accusations Thaksin made about Prem are pushing Thailand towards violence, Thaksin is probing for a flash point around the country as rallies around the country are popping up searching for a Governor who is willing to take a swing or allow a clash with other groups.
That alone strongly suggests Prem was not involved but Thaksin knew it would be a hot topic that caused strong emotions. So now Thaksin is pushing to start violence before that lie can be disproved losing whatever momentum it generated. If Thaksin is sucessful in starting violence, it will give him the fuel he needs to build the fire.