Thailand’s government seems to have come out on top so far by not playing Thaksin’s game of violence. However seeing that Thaksin’s psychotic ego will not allow him to lose, new and more interesting and dangerous adventures are ahead as the game moves up to the next level.
From July 2006 until the coup on September 19, 2006 the sent Thaksin packing, Thaksin continued to find new lows in his bid to be Dictator of Thailand. When people thought or could not imagine going lower, Thaksin promptly demonstrated that a bottomless pit was there. It is this ability and desire that is most worrying to people.
New years eve 2006/2007 produced bombs around Bangkok, and although the trail of the bombers got cold, people eventually saw a pattern emerge that clearly pointed to Thaksin. Every time Thaksin was behind the 8 Ball so to speak, things happened in and around Bangkok that sent people into action.
With the apparent unfolding failure of the red shirt rally in Bangkok as Songkran starts, the shift to Pattaya and an active venue seems to be the next plan of action. The Asean summit for the moment is the only game in town as people shift their interests to festivities across Thailand. The goal of the red shirts in Pattaya is to simply make trouble as they continue to look for that flash point that will start violence. What will happen next is very unclear, however there will be something.
Unfortunately for Thaksin the red shirt leaders have a reputation of being self serving opportunists, and at the moment it is starting to look like a snake beginning to eat it’s own tail. The media is reporting a rift in the red shirt leadership that is reflective of opportunism. This no doubt has Thaksin fuming and perhaps sending several breakables into low orbits in his hotel Suite. This may cause Thaksin to seek other supporters in a different tentacle to stir up trouble. There are still plenty of Thaksin supporters just under the surface keeping their heads down while the Democrats are in power. Some of them may be tapped, and his military connections seem to be the best option at the moment.
Needless to say Thaksin is very desperate at the moment, and all bets are off as to how low he will go to cause problems. Waiting and regrouping seems less likely as more people grow weary of politics. Only the true hard core most self serving bunch will remain, and that could quickly turn into a back stabbing feeding frenzy if they see or feel Thaksin is losing.
Connecting the Dots has outlined over the past few posts what we feel is likely to happen, and we see the game is still in play. There is no doubt Thaksin is re-posturing for yet another attack, his ego will not let him do anything else. Depending on how desperate he feels will be directly related to how intense the next attack will be.
Note: This post was composed at 9:00 am on April 10. Events after that time are not considered.