Connecting the Dots prediction has unfortunately come true in Pattaya Thailand. The convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra has succeed in pissing off the leaders of several countries all at the same time.
It is unfortunate for Thailand that ample security was not in place, however there will eventually be a silver lining visible in this dark cloud. The first and possibly the most important thing is the leaders Thaksin’s red shirt army disturbed are much more well versed on Thaksin than one would think. After all it was not that long ago that Thaksin was at the same level as them as a Prime Minister, and many have had one on one talks with Thaksin before the 2006 coup. They are also aware that Thaksin is one of the causes of Thailand’s problems. Even that the Asean Summit is a gathering of leaders working together, they still are competitors when it comes to many things like tourist income.
Seeing is the leaders of the countries that attended the summit made plans well in advance and now it has turned out to be just wasted time because of Thaksin’s interference, they no doubt will be making some decisions themselves about how to deal with Thaksin. This short term victory Thaksin claimed in Pattaya may just be the opening of Pandora’s box for him.
Thaksin’s red shirt army has basically shown that they are out of control and only driven by the desire to make trouble. Essentially the attack on the Summit can be seen as attempts on the lives of the Asean leaders. So if throwing shoes at President George Bush will get you 3 years in jail, imagine what this little episode will bring. This may actually cause charges to be filed against Thaksin in other countries. Because there was no clear cut reason for Thaksin’s red shirt army to be there, reasons such as assassination attempts can easily be assumed based on the recent attempt on a Privy counselor.
It appears also that the action of the red shirts was not thought out to conclusion by the leaders as their actions involved attacks on leaders of other countries. At the very least this can be classified as an international crime facing international laws. The red shirt people involved and particularly the red shirt leaders could easily be facing life in jail for threats on foreign dignitaries, and in some countries the death penalty depending on what country wants them. The fact that they had weapons with intent to use them and were so close clearly warrants the charges that will eventually be coming. This no longer is a Thai only issue. To make matters worse for them, if they do a cross border runner, all the countries that border Thailand are now involved by this attack. You can certainly imagine how that will go down. In short this is about as big a blunder as there could be. It actually qualifies for a Darwin award.
As other countries look on and also understand that Thaksin is behind this will severely limit Thaksin’s ability to move about. Countries may allow Thaksin to land, then take him into custody and just hand him to the Thais no questions asked. After all what is to stop Thaksin from doing damage in their countries. Plus what would the Asean countries think it they were to host Thaksin and what damage to relationships would be cause by it. In short Thaksin may have clipped his own wings with this Pattaya fiasco.
Unfortunately the general media will report on the face value of the events and not make the connections Connecting the Dots does. So it may be a while before Thaksin is labeled an international terrorist. After all Osama bin Laden does not go on site when he makes trouble, and as far as much of the world is concerned he is public enemy #1. Thaksin may soon make that top ten list without the help of David Letterman. When you start to think how many people would target a group of leaders like this, the list is very short and Osama bin Laden is on that list.
So when we talk about a silver lining in this dark cloud, that silver lining would be the end of the Thaksin Shinawatra saga as he is hunted down by not only Thailand. That may leave Thaksin’s hotel options to be a cave in Afghanistan bunking up with you know who.