If you think the fugitive thaksin Shinawatra has given up after his red shirt army was disbursed in Bangkok by the military, think again. Very simply Thaksin is incapable of giving up, his psychotic ego will never let that happen.
What Connecting the Dots unfortunately predicts is not very good for Thailand. According to the news, the bulk of the violent people that took part in the mayhem in Bangkok are from up country. That simply means the battle will shift to that part of the country and will take on a guerilla flavor. That will continue to allow Thaksin time to regroup and grow his ranks. He may also try to claim that part of Thailand as his to continue to perpetuate his goal. If his support is strong enough there is some remote possibility of success. But as things stand now, that is a very long shot. He will need to set up a government to provide, but it is doubtful other countries will play along after what happened in Bangkok and more so at the Asean Summit in Pattaya. What we are saying is Thaksin’s psychotic ego will weigh this as a possibility.
However with the condemnation from the US on the actions of the red shirts, it will be hard for even the least educated Thai to misunderstand that particular message. They look at the US as the model of democracy, and to hear that the master model of democracy does not approve, simply forces them to look at what is going on. However Thaksin will try to feed the anger to keep them blind for as long as he can.
As the next few days unfold many new dots will start to appear, and for now Connecting the Dots needs to bite our lip and see what they will be. We can predict that there will be some change in how other countries see Thaksin, but that we have already said. The question is how much different.
We also need to see how the Thai government will posture when it comes to the red shirts. If they will be considered an outlaw group, or whatever still remains to be seen.
As for Thaksin, no doubt this is a stinging blow that he failed to spark a following, and the condemnation from the US certainly wets the tinder. As for how hard a hit this is on a scale of 1 to 10, this would be about an 8 in our estimates with 10 being a knockout. Even his retained publicity groups must take a good hard ethical look at continuing to work with Thaksin. There is little doubt left to anyone what Thaksin is all about.
Thaksin supporters will start to feel the financial sting of this almost immediately as tourist income that eventually gets upcountry further dries up. That next thin paycheck that comes out around the end of the month will be the first hit in the wallets of Thaksin’s actions.
Huh? I’m not sure where you are going with the US reference. The US ALWAYS speaks up and condemns violent actions that go against the incumbent government. This is nothing new or surprising. They did the same last October when the Yellow shirts resorted to violence and do the same all over the world each and every time violence becomes the answer for change.
My take on this is that it buys the current government some much needed time to try and bridge the gap with the two factions of Thailand. If they can reach out and really try to find some middle ground as opposed to rhetoric, they may be able to diffuse some of Thaksins current influence with the North. Trying to align themselves with some influential red shirt supporters and lending an olive branch in the form of some real democratic reforms could go a long way towards a united Thailand and in effect eliminate (or at least greatly reduce) the threat of Thaksin.
The vast majority of Thais don’t want violence whether red, yellow, or other. However, they do want to feel like they have a voice and the only influential person the red shirts have that is speaking up for their rights is Thaksin. Most are smart enough to know that Thaksin is only in it for his selfish wants, but what choice do they currently have. No one else is looking out for them so they have to align themselves with the devil in order to have any chance of equality and influence, no matter how little that may be.