Thailand’s rift runs very deep, you see it daily if you care to look. In fact it is so deep, non-Thais are finding themselves getting wrapped up in it. Seemingly the direction Thailand is moving now only puts a bandage on it and not end it.
No matter how you cut it, the rift in Thailand is huge. Anybody living in Thailand is being effected. Warnings from governments and in news papers to tourists about wearing certain colors to avoid being mistaken for a political statement. It is starting to sound like warnings about wearing gang colors in Los Angles or other big US cities to avoid inviting violence.
There are two forces at work here, the forces behind Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who are trying to close the rift, and the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra who is trying to widen it. For the most part at least for now Abhisit and Thaksin are equally matched. It took Abhisit about 3 months to bring a relative feeling of calmness, but it took Thaksin about 2 weeks to bring fighting on the streets of Bangkok as well as other places.
This leaves us with the dilemma of the day chasing the night meaning this could go on endlessly. Needless to say each is trying to take the other out of the game. Thaksin is not shy about using violence to achieve his goals while Abhisit looks to follow the straight and narrow. As Thaksin is more than willing to play dirty, he can make huge advancements in short periods of time as seen in 3 months vs 2 weeks.
So simply put to end the rift in Thailand, Thaksin must be taken out of the game. The longer he is out of the game the better the chances the rift will completely heal. So with that thought, Connecting the Dots has painted several scenarios of what would happen if Thaksin were out of the game for different periods of time.
If Thaksin was to start serving 2 years in jail, all that would do would put the situation on low heat as Thaksin’s cronies would be working behind the scenes keeping the pot warm and trying to bust Thaksin out of jail. Thaksin no doubt would still have influence when he got out. So 2 years in jail is nothing more than intermission.
If Thaksin were in jail for 5 years, the chances of violence would be less as the political landscape will have changed. New policies will be in place to neutralize Thaksin’s popularity. Thaksin would still be influential and no doubt will have found a way with bribes to keep his influence alive. He simply can not give up. He would find ways to do what he always does.
If Thaksin were in jail for 7 years many will have forgotten him and many more teens will have never known him. His influence will almost certainly have to be rebuilt from the ground up. Knowing Thaksin, that would be his first goal.
With Thaksin in jail 10 years or longer, only his most avid supporters will remember him. If he was not able to pay his cronies they would have moved on to the next opportunity leaving Thaksin to rot in jail. However even after 10 years in jail, Thaksin would continue when he got out. The likelihood Thailand would have a new King by this time is fairly high, and that should tend to reduce resistance for Thaksin.
If Thaksin were dead, this most certainly would end the rift quickly. The cash flow to his cronies would instantly stop and that would simply end all motivation. Even if one of his family members were to pick up Thaksin’s torch, they would lack the knowhow to wield it bringing this chapter of Thailand’s problems to a close.
The interesting thing is people would be a complete peace with themselves if they had the chance to kill Thaksin. We are not talking about young men, we are talking across the board from senior women right on down the line. They would feel completely justified in taking matters into their own hands and putting an end to Thaksin. They most certainly feel they would be defending their King and country from Thaksin. That simply reflects how wide and deep the rift is in Thailand. To motivate someone at the mellow age of 60 to want to kill Thaksin is extreme.