Connecting the Dots

When you compare northern Thailand to rural Afghanistan you may find a similarity. That similarity is groups of people are prohibiting the government from effectively governing if at all in northern Thailand.

In Afghanistan it is the Taliban who are actively interfering with violence in rural areas. In Northern Thailand it is the Red Shirts. Based on some of the news reporting, it would seem there already is a virtual border in place between the pro and anti Thaksin sides. Once again things are starting to take the early shapes of civil war with the north being off limits or at the very least dangerous to government officials. This itself is significant and may require additional laws with stiff penalties for interfering with the government.

Whenever a government official needs to travel to the north to perform their duties, they are attacked by the Red Shirts thus prohibiting or seriously hindering the execution of their duties. At first this was an annoyance prior to the April riots. But now because of the April riots this is now much more ominous and serious. It would seem that a physical segregation is underway in Thailand with Thaksin being the King of the hill in the north.

Although it is a bit early, Connecting the Dots can see a serious elevation of tension as the Red Shirts forcibly make Thaksin the only available choice in Northern Thailand. The government can not properly see to the people and the people are being denied access to their government with or without their knowledge.

The Thaksin Red Shirts are also seeding the people with propaganda suggesting the government does not care. This propaganda is only looking to grow a new conflict. Simply put ‘Divide and Conquer’ is underway in Thailand, and the government must actively step in while the movement is relatively small. Even letting this fester for a month will cause much more problems.

This is a classic Thaksin approach in that it is a multi prong attack. Develop a civil war, while actively causing problems in Bangkok with the Pheu Thai Party (PTP). All of this will eventually overwhelm the government and military resources to insure order. Also the push for a royal pardon is part of the strategy dragging the King into a political battle making it seem the King must choose sides. To place the King in such a position has already been condemned by many.

The problem with this is at the moment Prime Minister Abhisit has already been damaged by Thaksin. It is clear the language and topics of Thaksin’s attacks are meant for the lesser educated. Anyone with more than 10 years of school can start to pick them apart, unfortunately the bulk of Thaksin supporters have less than that.

Connecting the Dots feels this will be the next major theme to hit the media as a Macon Dixie line forms in Thailand. As violence increases while the government tries to carry out its mandate in the north, Thaksin drives his wedge deeper by giving the appearance of the government being inept and uncaring to the people of Isaan.