There have been some rumors floated that there may be a silent coup underway to oust Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. So Connecting the Dots decided to have a look and put some dots together.
Ignoring who said what and from what side of the street they are from is necessary to understand this. Simply because essentially it is irrelevant for the most part. What we look to do is look at some hard facts and ignore the rumors.
The first dot has to do with politicians and what they would gain by getting rid of Abhisit. The simple answer to that is nothing directly. When you look at the last 6 months, Abhisit has not been going after other politicians who are corrupt. He has not even lifted a finger. His focus has been to operate a government inside the parameters outlined by the 2007 Constitution. By doing so he proves it is possible and Thailand can prosper within the guidelines. This itself acts to protect the Constitution from change. If he was not able to operate inside the Constitution, then the conditions of the Constitution would be seen as too restrictive and all sides would have a go at rewriting it.
Seeing that Abhisit has not lifted a finger to deal with bad politicians, it simply means the Constitution has actually been doing all the work. In fact the Constitution was dealing with and removing bad politicians before Abhisit became Prime Minister. So removing Abhisit would do nothing except make the path a little easier to get at the Constitution. But rest assured the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) would be out in full force if that was the case, and little or nothing would be gained from a politically motivated coup.
The real danger of a coup comes from corrupt people who are not so tightly controlled by the Constitution with the emphases is on the word corrupt. In this case we are talking about corrupt people that wear one type of uniform or another. And as it would be, it seems that Abhisit may be caught in a rip tide that is taking him into deeper and deeper waters. That rip tide is powered by not showing bias and following the law to the letter. As one question is answered, others tend to appear as the next one has to do with assigning positions inside the police and the related scandal.
As Abhisit was prematurely drawn into the assassination attempt investigation against Sondhi Limthongkul, he has come face to face with people who see him as a threat to their pot of gold. It is not hard to see they felt the same about Sondhi Limthongkul. There certainly may be a connection to Thaksin with this, but Thaksin has plenty more problems in his path besides Sondhi and Abhisit. However it is admitted both of them are major problems.
So it would be these corrupt uniform type people that would most benefit from a coup, and seeing as it is uniform type people that stage coups, it is easy to see the connection and basis of the rumor. But as the rumor of a coup is simmering, assassinating Abhisit may also provide limited remedy. For them shooting at Sondhi or Abhisit is exactly the same as both are seen as a threat to their pot of gold.