Economic recovery or just spin?

The first part of economic recovery is getting people to believe that economic recovery is under way. The problem is the average person of any country does not have easy access to raw data, much less have the ability to decipher it. That means they simply must believe what they are told.

So here is the dilemma, do you believe what people tell you or do you need to see it with your own eyes. In most cases our survival instinct tells us we must see it to believe it, others will simply place blind trust in others because they are not truly capable of sorting it out themselves. So what things can you spot on your own to see what is going on with the economy is the meat of this post.

The first thing you can rule out is the price of oil, as far as Connecting the Dots is concerned the people who price oil have lost touch with reality by looking too far into the future. Pricing oil for predicted events more than 3 or 4 months in the future leaves way too many variables. They are looking about a year ahead, and if you recall this time last year we had not a clue what today would be like. In fact high oil prices of $100.00 per barrel or more could simply mean the economy is getting ready to crash again. It was high oil prices that were a major contributing factor to the crash and will be again.

However looking at industry and their use of energy is a clue you can get some feel for yourself. Getting that information is hard, but if energy companies were to provide websites that track industry energy usage, people would naturally start to feel better about things. The simple psychological boost from a near real time website will be a great asset in speeding the recovery along. This would be a good thing to encourage as it quickly builds trust between the government and the people.

You can not use the food industry very easy as simply everyone must eat no matter what shape the economy is in. The food industry is the only industry that would survive a nuclear war as the survivors would still need to eat. But what you can do is when you go shopping look to see what other people are buying. If they are buying the cheapest possible options, or are they buying something a little more expensive will also give you a clue as to what is going on.

The next thing is a bit more difficult, but that is watch what the so called experts are doing. Do their actions match their words in personal purchases or are they still pinching pennies is what to look for. You can not use the higher paid people who read the reports when looking at this factor, you need to look at the lower paid people crunching the data to make the reports.

It is important to rule out for the most part what politicians would say. They will simply spin it to their hearts content all while looking at the next election cycle. So when watching the news, take note of the expert and not the politician.

After food shopping comes clothes shopping, and that is easy to check. Take note of the traffic in discount stores and upscale stores. Also take note if the clothes being purchased are for leisure or for work. Also what days of the week and times of the day people are shopping will tell a lot. That factor can be used in any retail store not only clothing.

These are a few simple ways you can see for yourself what direction the economy is going and of it may be a bit safer to spend a little more.

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