There are increasing signs in Thailand that the first pass of the political shaping planer is reaching the end of the first pass. The second pass seems to shift from what needs to be done to what wants to be done and is showing the signs of Thai politics as usual. The question remains is this politics as usual, or are looks deceiving and change is hidden by posturing just for sake of appearance.
There is no doubt on any Thai politicians mind that it does not matter who is Prime Minister, as long as the Thai Constitution is alive and well bad boy politicians are destined to become history. So there is little doubt that is their first thought in the morning, and their last thought before bed. That is clearly why it is such a hot issue.
For the bulk of Thai politicians, the first 9 months of this year have been like a long smoke free flight chain smokers must endure. They entered politics to make money, but the game rules have changed and are forced to be honest or else pay the price.
For the most part politicians less the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) begrudgingly worked together to do what was needed to save Thailand from economic disaster. The PTP only had their masters interests in mind and not only tried to throw a wrench into the works, they tossed the entire tool box with an attempt to overthrow the country with riots and chaos. They even tried to stall the approved budget from being disbursed because it would only show their master the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra was not the only man that could do the job.
So now the problems are starting to show and that behind the scenes negotiations are underway. That may tend to cause a little soiling to Prime Minister Abhisit’s shining white armor, but in reality coming out undamaged was never expected. However in reality this is normal in any government. The only difference the meat that is about to be carved may be a bit rancid and lead to severe cases of food poisoning. Some of the projects like the massive bus leasing project may fall into that category.
Reading the news analysis of the situation, it is a bit difficult to decipher as frequently deliberately misleading stories and accusations generated by pro Thaksin people are allowed to find there way into the news. Because of this it becomes necessary to look at the situation and make your own conclusions to find the probable truth.
What Connecting the Dots sees are two possible outcomes at this time and both evolve around the Constitution. It is clear those who want to fast track the changes want to do so for their own reasons. They will want an all or nothing type vote. However per the Democrats taking the long approach and a line item veto option to the people will be about the only way changes to the Constitution will happen. But before it gets that far, those apposed to changes that do not serve the people will see to it the passing votes are not achieved. That is likely to lead to Abhisit pushing the flush handle on Parliament and calling a snap election. If that happens the second pass of that political shaping planer will start because the Constitution will remain untouched and bad boy politicians will still face the same perils.
In reality it does not seem the Abhisit government is on the verge of collapse. There have been regular stories that was going to happen from as far back as the second week of his government. There are however what would be called normal negotiations between politicians as they each seek to push their own personal project. The general misconception about Abhisit is he is indecisive. That however Connecting the Dots does not find to be entirely accurate. Abhisit must first test each decision to the Constitution, and that can take some time as several independent consultants test possible decisions. Connecting the Dots also did a story some time back on Alpha male Thai politics that also tends to explain a lot as well. A hasty decision without first testing it to the Constitution is much more politically fatal than taking the time to do it right, and that is what we are seeing with Abhisit.