The first seeds of a Thaksin lead coup are being planted in Thailand. Unfortunately The eventual outcome of all this will be more Thai blood in the streets, and avoiding that will be difficult to near impossible.
As more elements of Thaksin’s plan to take power in Thailand again sprout from the ground, it becomes increasingly disturbing and worrisome that there will be all out war with Thais killing Thais in the streets. That is clearly the plan, and it will be up to the government and the military to see that it does not happen. When this unfortunate event will go down in Thailand will depend entirely on when the next elections are held.
Connecting the Dots feels confident that we can give a fairly full set of dots putting this all together. With that said, there are 2 types of attacks going on. The buying of people by Thaksin that is silently going on, and the very visible red shirts and now new names in the ring. This post will only talk about the visible dots as the other has already been covered.
1) Thaksin knows that popular people will get elected even if they have no political skill. This is fine for Thaksin as he will never let them have a say anyway.
2) Pushing the Puea Thai Party (PTP) to swell its ranks with celebrities and people with some skill will better the chances of a majority after the next elections and the right to form the next government.
3) This will immediately cause the Yellow shirts People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to go back into the streets. As the PAD are passive and not violent, they will be attacked by pro Thaksin people as before, and respond with the same methods as before. This will be the first blood. This will also be the start of what could be called gangs similar to Hitler Youth groups to properly beat up any non Thaksin supporters with the yellow shirts being prime targets.
4) The PTP will pickup where the People Power Party (PPP) left off by gutting any and all things that stand in Thaksin’s way. It will be easy to see that once again democracy is being dismantled by Thaksin as Thailand moves backwards again.
5) At some point significant resistance will be given to defend democracy and that will be the start of full blown civil war in Thailand. That may come in the form of classic war with Thais shooting Thais or the need for another military staged coup to simply save Thai lives.
The only significant checks to stem or slow this chain of events from unfolding is the stimulus money that was spent by The Abhisit government needs to be seen working. Second the 2007 Constitution must remain untouched as it is the Constitution that will protect democracy in Thailand.
The other things that could slow all this down is finally charging the Pro Thaksin supporters with the charge of treason that they clearly earned and locking them away until they go to trial. That will send a clear message that this is no game. Also the greatly anticipated Birthday speech by the King that is just over 1 month away. That speech as historically been in the evening of December 4th.
This is clearly the start of another crucial time for Thailand as Thaksin looks to take what he wants with total disregard to everyone and everything. He will use the popularity of others to do it.