With the sudden vocal turn from Cambodia about political happenings in Thailand, and that being non of their concern, it does leave you wondering what Thaksin offered Cambodia if he was to get back in power. There is just too much being said by Cambodia to suggest not getting some sort of gain by Thaksin getting back into power.
Thaksin certainly has nothing to lose by offering parts of Thailand to Cambodia. As a dictator Thaksin could carve off a Provence or two and offer it to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen as thanks for his help.
At first you may think this is far fetched, but after you think about it for a minute or two it starts to make a lot of sense. Thaksin has a lot riding in the next few weeks. The fate of billions of Baht is to be decided in the courts and that could end Thaksin’s political chances for good if the ruling goes against him. But that is unlikely to stop him as he does not know how to quit.
So lets consider a possible scenario that will give Thaksin an edge. There is little doubt Thaksin’s red shirt army will be surrounded by thousands of police and military personnel dressed in riot gear. The numbers will be significant. So news reports have suggested that Thaksin will hire non Thais to join in. This has already been prohibited by the government saying this is a Thai only block party. But realistically they would be loose cannons running around causing problems for Thaksin’s benefit by drawing off police and military from the main rally.
Next the possibility of a sudden buildup at the border by Cambodian military. This would further siphon off resources as the government would move to redeploy troops to the border. Cambodia need not attack, just make a lot of noise at the border.
The pro Thaksin elements in the military being class 10 have also voiced their support for Thaksin in the last few days, and they may also be planning something.
So the simple divide and conquer tactic is a possibility and probably is the only resource Thaksin has if he plans to use violence as he has suggested in recent days. The strait forward protest rally without violence will do nothing except burn off some calories.
This is a possible scenario and the events over the past few weeks have suggested that there is better chance than not things will flow in this direction. With Thailand’s military busy in the far south fighting insurgents and assisting with people caught in floods, the reserves may be getting on the low side.
Bottom line is things look to happen in the next few days so expect anything and have basic supplies in stock should things go south quickly.
