In Thailand when it comes to Thaksin and his populace policies, his core area of support is all thumbs up. But based on Connecting the Dots interpretation of recent polls, Thaksin would bring his policies, but it is not necessary for the policies to bring Thaksin.
There has been a gradual shift in Thailand that looks to be accelerating, and that is being caused by Thaksin himself with his behavior of late. More and more Thais feel that Thaksin has forsaken Thailand by his actions in Cambodia and his attacks with his Red Shirt army. The behavior has ceased being political in appearance, and more like an invading army.
This in reality is an uncomfortable position for many people in the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) to be seen linked with Thaksin at this point. The behavior of Thaksin today is clearly not what they expected. Thaksin is clearly seen by many Thais on both sides of the fence as a traitor for his involvement in Cambodia, particularly when the issues surrounding the Preah Vihear temple are considered. It was one of Thaksin’s key cronies that started that mess. Couple that with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and his best of friends appearance with Thaksin, and it certainly looks like the temple was a gift from Thaksin.
Meanwhile the PTP has been pushing Thaksin’s populace policies in an effort to maintain support. But this is starting to look more and more like a catch 22 for Thaksin. Thaksin is gone and has been for some time, however his policies are still being marketed. Over time people will eventually lose the connection that Thaksin is required to have these policies enacted. In short, the people enjoy the policies, but Thaksin has become a bad taste in the mouths of patriotic Thais in his core support area.
This most certainly is a problem for Thaksin as all but the deepest core supporters are reluctant to be seen linked to a traitor while looking at their own political future. This becomes an indicator of how successful they feel Thaksin’s bid to overthrow the government will be. Pushing the populace policies without making mention of Thaksin is clearly a read into this.
At this point it would be wise for the Abhisit government to exploit this by further separation of the need to bundle Thaksin with the policies. By taking Thaksin out of the formula his support will drop as he has already alienated himself from patriotic Thais. Adding fuel to that if it could be shown that Thaksin has slowed money getting to his core supporters for self serving reasons, that will simply be a whole bunch of nails in his political coffin.
In summary the fight for control of Thailand must me fought in the grey matter between the ears of populace party supporters, and not with blood on the streets. Separation of the need to have Thaksin to get the policies will for the most part end Thaksin’s support.