Looking at Thailand and the political situation, Connecting the Dots sees thing slightly different than what mainstream media is reporting. With that said, we have decided to launch a periodic series looking at the moment. We do not know or plan how far apart our snapshots will be, but we can say we look to do as we always do and cut past rumors and spin to get to the hard facts.
As many people are concerned about what is going on in Thailand, many have turned to Connecting the Dots to get our perspective. We do get frequent email from people asking questions as they prefer not to post a reply. They range from business men who look to launch companies or partnerships in Thailand, to people wondering about setting up retirement in Thailand. Our track record has made us a good sounding board for many, and for that we are once again flattered.
Taking a look at the moment being mid January 2010 we see the following facts.
Thaksin’s Red Shirt army has hit the bottom of the barrel when it comes to finding reasons to rally. The issues of late are based around one or a very few people. Thus far all have been seen by Thaksin as his enemies. The latest series on land encroachment is likely to backfire. Prime Minister Abhisit will base his reaction on the letter of the law. If the situation says the Red Shirts have a valid point, he will set to correct it. The backfiring part will be other people that are likely pro Thaksin or red shirts that are also involved in encroachment will be dealt with as well. So this simply becomes a double edge sword for the red shirts as it will drive people against them. However this will take several months to take significant root.
There have been some speculations about Thaksin’s financial situation as he seems to becoming delinquent on some bills. There is a lot of sense in this as Thaksin is burning through money like there is no tomorrow. Probably because that may be the case. Most people on the run go into hiding. Thaksin however has taken the high profile road and that is costing him big money for security. The use of his private jet has become in fact his getaway car avoiding Interpol law enforcement in public places. So the likelihood Thaksin is running out of cash is a significant possibility.
Thaksin never announces in advance where he is going for security reasons, but he does make a point to announce when he is going to Cambodia. Because of that it is very clear that his visits to Cambodia have nothing to do with being a financial advisor, and everything to do with overthrowing Abhisit and his government.
February 26 appears to be what has been named ‘Judgment Day’ for Thaksin as the status of his impounded wealth will be decided. Connecting the Dots can not say how the courts will rule, but we can say that Thaksin will do whatever he can to insure he does not lose. So if Red Shirt riots will work towards that goal, then riot should be expected. They also will avoid consolidation, so you can expect many disturbances across Bangkok and perhaps tourist areas in other parts of Thailand all at the same time. This would make sense with Thaksin seeing close proximity to Thailand by being in Cambodia. With that thought looking for Jakrapob Penkair to come out of hiding as a sure bet violence is planned.
This however may be preempted by arresting the Red Shirt leaders for violation of whatever court orders have been giving tied to the April 2009 riots. That should not be too hard to do seeing how close to the edge they have been playing. There is clear need to counter Thaksin and it all must be done within the law.
The stability of the Abhisit coalition government is being questioned. To this we say this is just propaganda meant to cause panic. Although it may be rough going between the coalition parties, having Thaksin back is a far worse situation. Seeing That Thaksin will set about making people disappear if he comes back insures the coalition will stick together. In short it becomes the extremely lesser of two unpleasant things.