Taking a look at the big picture for convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, it has the smell of problems based on circumstances with some being beyond his control. In this case it may be live by the sword and die by the sword A.K.A. money.
First and most important the clock is running and the zero hour is most likely about 3 PM February 26, 2010. That would be about the time the court would be expected to convene to issue a ruling on Thaksin’s impounded wealth.
The second thing is there is increasing circumstantial evidence that says Thaksin’s money reserves may be nearing depletion. The financial crash in Dubai would be felt by investors 30 to 60 days after the announcement, and that is just about where things are. So it is a fair assumption Thaksin has taken a significant hit. For Thaksin to stay there he needs to invest, it is the basis of the symbiotic relationship he has. What that means is the expected positive returns are now an unexpected negative cash flow in the U.A.E.
Also the fact that Thaksin’s spokesman / lawyer has pushed to say money recently impounded by the British government was not Thaksin’s simply means it was. As Thaksin likes to hide his money, and nobody came forward to claim the money further provides a connection to Thaksin as that is one of his signatures. That is part of the basis of the pending court ruling that Thaksin hid that he controlled the money.
On the home front Thaksin’s Red Shirt army simply have nothing to rally about. They are now just doing personal attacks on people Thaksin sees as his enemies. There are no significant issues and people that are attending the rallies are only doing so because they are getting paid. Few people care about a minor land issue. The attack of the red shirt mosquitos that is planned will have no real reason and end up sounding like a dog barking at the wind. That is unless dozens do so at the same time. This type of attack is about the only tactic Thaksin has left. A big rally will be surrounded and kept in a box.
This also suggests that Thaksin is not at all confident he will win the court case. If he felt he had a chance and money he would apply other methods. But without money he will soon come crashing back to earth to be scooped up and tossed in jail to serve his time.
However this is a snapshot of the moment and Thaksin never single tasks. There are other things going on but there are too few dots to make out what it is. If Thaksin does not have money, then Thaksin does not have friends. The only reason people put up with Thaksin and his egotistic arrogance is they are compensated for it.
Nevertheless Prime Minister Abhisit should not drop is guard and underestimate Thaksin. There are too many people that owe Thaksin a favor and they could be the dirt in the gas that will stall Abhisit and his government. One such example is the police may become inept and allow the Red Shirts to rampage. The attempt to reinstate 3 fired top cops that appear to be very pro Thaksin strongly suggest that dirt may be brown in color. Without pro Thaksin people in key positions, Abhisit looks to win the game as long as he has enough mosquito repellent.