For the people that have been following the political crisis in Thailand, you may have noticed a change this week. The change is happening inside the Red Shirts, and some are now worried with good reason about where things will go for them personally. In short, some have realized the reality of dancing with the devil.
To sort all of this out requires the understanding of all the players and how they react in different situations, and their personal goals. Connecting the Dots has done that for you so simply read on and you will get a good feel for what is likely to happen next.
To set the stage of players, the first group is the Red Shirt leaders that have been busy spewing propaganda and other lies for the past year. The second person to consider is Prime Minister Abhisit. The Third person is Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol. The forth person is Thaksin Shinawatra.
The situation is as such. It appears the Red Shirt leaders have forgotten Thaksin’s prime directive and have signed on with Prime Minister Abhisit’s road map. The reason for that is unknown other than the fact of perhaps the numbers of rank and file protesters have fallen off sharply and only the most violent and radical remain. Storming a hospital sent all kinds of negative impressions world wide and simply became another reality check for the lesser educated Thais.
The rumors of the Red Shirt leaders falling out of favor with Thaksin is most likely true for two solid reasons. First is reconciliation is not what Thaksin wants, Thaksin wants power and to be the top man in Thailand. That is what he has been striving for from the moment he was informed of the coup that sent him packing. The second reason is Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol tends to speak the truth as he sees it to be. He avoids saying things that will incriminate him as would anyone. Khattiya feels he is doing the right thing by siding with Thaksin, so he takes pride in that and has no reason to lie. When he announced Thaksin had fired the Red Shirt leaders, it completely matches Thaksin’s personality profile.
Although the Red Shirt leaders have said they can not be fired because the UDD is not a company is very true, but when Thaksin starts sending his money to others in the group to run things, they are effectively fired because they have lost their funding/grant.
Prime Minister Abhisit is solid on the letter of the law. There will be no letting the Red Shirt leaders off the hook with bail deals, and they will have their day in court starting with the moment they surrender. With that being a one way street and Thaksin not looking to help them anymore because they did not follow his instructions, their fate is sealed with probable death sentences or life in jail.
So with that thought the Red Shirt leaders are looking for ways out of the hole they dug for themselves. Asking for Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban to go and surrender was more of a tactic to delay. That quickly backfired when he did go and surrender just hours later. Seeing the statement after that the it did not meet the Red Shirt leaders demands clearly says they are just out of options and are clearly buying time. What that means is they will find some impossible irrelevant task to ask for next. If there was any word that could describe what is going on in their minds, panic would be exactly right as survival mode kicks in full on. Seeing the fight or flight instinct will be next on stage for them, and fight seems to be spent, the word ‘fled’ is likely to be seen in the media very soon attached to their names.
What happens next is also easy to plot, There will be other Red Shirt rallies with other Red Shirt leaders on what Thaksin wants. That could set the stage for Abhisit to have a legitimate reason to withdraw the dissolving of Parliament later this year as the primary prerequisites will not have been met.