From a spectators viewpoint the Red Shirt leadership is looking more and more like nobody is in control and in full panic as irrational and meaningless demands are being made as a prerequisite to end their occupation. It is increasingly clear that they will fall short of their goal and fall into the waiting arms of jailers and judges with serious charges that carry the death penalty.
Depending on who you choose to listen to you will hear statements from ‘Only Thaksin can order the end to the rally’ to fighting over what to do. But no matter how you look at it, it would seem the Red Shirt leaders have sacrificed all. Seeing that their battle cry was along those lines at the start of all this, at least that part seems to have come true. Many rank and file Thai Red Shirts have lost respect for the Red Shirt leaders because of their inability to match their actions to their words.
Assuming that Thaksin was the only person who could make the call to end the Red Shirt occupation of Bangkok, it would tend to make some sense of what events are unfolding. Seeing that compromise is not in Thaksin’s vocabulary, and that he is the only person that would benefit from the original Red Shirt demands, it makes sense that the occupation continues. The fact that Prime Minister Abhisit’s road map deliberately leaves Thaksin out of the loop both challenges and exposes that the Red Shirts are not about democracy no matter how much they say they are. It also clearly demonstrates that everyone who wears a red shirt and supports the Red Shirts is just a pawn on Thaksin’s chessboard that can be sacrificed at anytime.
The crackdown that is due to start signals that the Red Shirts are not capable of being trustworthy (once again) and also gives the opportunity for Abhisit to withdraw or delay the most controversial part of his road map being new elections later this year. It also will show to the Red Shirt rank and file that the Red Shirt leaders have squandered gains achieved. In either case it becomes a losing situation for the Red Shirt leaders to not honor their word.
Connecting the Dots can predict with a certain amount of accuracy that more bombs will be exploding in and around Bangkok once the crackdown starts. That point is highlighted by a new announcement on the Skytrain encouraging passengers to be alert for suspicious packages. Targets will be places more than people, but this may change as well as clearly Thaksin will look to up things another notch or two. Assassination attempts will be more likely with government officials being the prime targets. With Abhisit trying to display a sense of normalcy by using the Government House from time to time, he risks being an exposed target.
Things are far from over and the Red Shirts will do their best to counter the passive depravation crackdown by increased violence away from the occupation site. The leadership of the militant wing of the Red Shirts is not shy to pull the trigger, and that is why his name is listed with an arrest warrant for terrorism.