In what would appear to be a case of severe anemia, Abhisit’s governments seems to lack the energy to finish Red Shirt removal tasks. It does leave the question as to what is going on and if Abhisit is really in control or not. So with that thought, Connecting the Dots offers this speculative analysis.
False starts seems to be an understatement when it comes to Abhisit dealing with the Red Shirts. In fact there have been so many false starts it has shaken the confidence in the most diehard supporters. Questions about military influence or too many Red Shirt supporters standing on Abhisit’s side of the fence are making their rounds. Even rumors that Thaksin has bought the top military brass has been floated amongst many. All of them have a solid basis when observing events unfold, and all of them very concerning to anyone living in Thailand.
Connecting the Dots openly admits we lack solid information as our avenues of information have all but dried up once the state of emergency was declared. We have relied on secondary sources that are not always as reliable for whatever reason. So we must look at the known facts and see how they apply. So in no particular order, here is what we see.
Looking at the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion, we first look at the plan to cut electric power to the Red Shirts. With the Thai government liking to keep controls on the media for whatever reason, the Internet is wired in such a way that all traffic comes through a single portal. That portal is located someplace in or near the Red Shirt occupation site. So blacking out the area could have the disastrous effect of taking Thailand off the Internet.
Seeing that there are Red Shirt supporters or more specifically Thaksin supporters in the military and the government, there is a real possibility of serious sabotage or civil war should they be secretly organized. If they are not then clearly this would be Thaksin’s next step in escalation of the conflict. So to avoid triggering this bunch to become active, alternate passive approaches are needed.
The concern that Abhisit is not calling the shots is essentially true. We talked about this in a recent story called “Abhisit’s political insulation”. While the state of emergency is active, all tactical control falls to the military. So even if Abhisit says go, he is not in the drivers seat and must wait for the military to decide when to act and in what way.
There is clearly a lot going on behind the scenes, but the failure of the government to do something they said they would do, does cause concern. It is the fallout of publically announcing tactics and then needing to change them that is the concern. It is clearly meant to test the Red Shirts response, but it also has a negative effect on confidence and comes across as not being in control.
Connecting the Dots feels there is significant concern simply because of the number of times this has happened. It comes down to not thinking things out, or not being in control. In both cases it is not a good thing.