Thailand : cycle stop or cycle reset

It is straight out of a Hollywood movie cliche ‘It is done’. The threats made by an angry Thaksin have been carried out. Bringing harm to the people who crossed him, all while trying to look innocent of the fact. The question is, is this the end or just a cycle reset.

The list of Thaksin connections is way too long to list, so we will only touch on the few most damning. But as we do we must keep our eyes to the future. We also must be fully aware as everyone is, this cycle will not end until Thaksin meets his end. The psychological propaganda that Thaksin had cancer shows the government is also aware of this fact.

In the secret negotiations that looked to bring an end to the Red Shirt occupation failed because of Thaksin’s demands. They were as expected being amnesty, getting his passports back including the diplomatic one, and getting his money back. The quick translation of that is cancel justice when it is applied to him. That brings up the most obvious point that Thaksin was in control of the Red Shirts and was using them as a threat to force the give backs. When that threat failed for the most part Thaksin burned Bangkok. Based on what Connecting the Dots sees, Thaksin had zero gains in this last round of Red Shirt violence, and that means he will be back using even more force.

The psychological impact and the financial impact have yet to be fully realized, and it will take a full month for that. Meanwhile as one part of Bangkok is put into intensive care, other parts will pick up the slack when it comes to retail and tourist trade. As luck would have it there is plenty of new space for retail stores that were burned out, and as it would be much of that space is along the Skytrain. So instead of having one central area, being decentralize will have its benefits as well.

The Internet was designed by the military minds to be decentralized. Should one part be destroyed, the rest will survive and have redundant ability to negate the damage. Even major Internet based companies like Google and Yahoo have several servers in different locations around the planet. Now Bangkok must adopt this strategy to recover more quickly. Retail space on the west side of the river will come alive in a fraction of the time it will take to rebuild downtown as the newest section of the Skytrain ferries tourist across. There is also new space at the Asok and Thong-lo Skytrain stations, so all is not as dark as it seems. In fact it may prompt an early opening of the Sukhumvit Skytrain newest section.

Meanwhile it becomes hard to imagine what else Thaksin can do. His worst threat being to make Thailand cry has been done. But knowing Thaksin, he never fails to surprise in how low he can go. Assassinations are still high on the list, and there is few doubts Thaksin would like to see Abhisit’s head in the cross hairs of a sniper’s rifle. Shooting people in the head seems to be one of Thaksin’s newest signatures.

This leaves Thailand to reflect on what has happened. There is little doubt Thaksin has lost some support because of the violence, and how much is yet to be seen. But if guilt by association has a hand in this, the numbers could be significant.

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