Silent Thaksin normal cycle

Look about and you will suddenly find that Thaksin Shinawatra seems to have disappeared from the news and other places. However this is part of a normal cycle for him as he adjusts his methods to achieve his goal. However this time may be different in a significant way.

For as long as Thaksin has been in the public spotlight, disappearing from view for a few days is completely normal when things go awry for him. In most cases when he was the Prime Minister of Thailand disappearing for 2 or 3 days was very normal. Disappearing from view was also seen after the 2006 coup, the 2009 Red Shirt riots and a few other times as well. Each and every time there was some change in his attack when he reappeared.

This time however there is a terrorist charge and arrest warrant that are of the most serious nature. There is no doubt Thaksin is in hiding as he looks to see if Interpol sees the arrest warrant as legitimate or politically motivated. To be honest Connecting the Dots did not see the terrorist connection at first when the Thai government announced it. But after studying it and seeing the events unfold, the terrorist connection was seen in the light portrayed. We even did a story on the comparisons between Thaksin and Osama bin Laden and there were strikingly similar if not identical parallels.

However in classic Thaksin style he proceeded to have a go with the media declaring he was innocent, but that backfired big time. Not only did he insult the Red Shirts by insinuating that they were to inept to light a fire, he completely forgot he was talking to an educated audience and applied the same language and logic he would have used to his lesser educated supporters. See that interview here. Take note that at the end someone hustled him away from the interview for blundering so badly.

It is clear that Interpol now controls the fate of Thailand at least in the short term. If they agree with the Thai government then Thaksin’s options will be very limited. He will be forced into hiding and limit his activities. Already several countries have told him not to make political statements, but as per classic Thaksin, he ignored his host government’s request. He only stopped when he felt it was too dangerous, and that brings up a significant point.

As much as Thaksin is trying to make it appear he is a happy-go-lucky globe trotter who is accepted wherever he goes, the reality is he is barely tolerated in the countries that will accept him. Now with the terrorist warrant, many more countries will simply not want to get involved and close their borders to him as it will become an unnecessary political headache that can be avoided.

So when Thaksin next appears, pay close attention to what he says. If it is defensive then he is running scared. If it is an attack, he feels a bit more confident but clearly more cautious. This last Red Shirt effort was billed as the make or break by the Red Shirt leaders. As it clearly fell short of the make option, and coupled with Thaksin’s psychotic behavior, he will eventually bring his own demise as he can not stop his obsession. In a way he is starting to look like a moth bouncing off a 100 watt light bulb with ever increasing force, and that can’t be good for the face.

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