Political bombs in Thailand

Perhaps temper tantrum bombs would be a more accurate description. It seems that whenever the pro Thaksin side is behind the 8 ball, one or more bombs go off.

In a way having a bomb go off in Bangkok is a good sign, except for the unfortunate people inside the blast radius. It tends to signify that the pro Thaksin camp is angry that their forward motion has been stopped or reversed. Although this time may be a bit different and more prolonged because the sudden realization that getting bail is not what it use to be.

There is a bit of history to this, and there are several aspects that can be discussed. There is the thought that a bomb may be a way to destabilize the government, and most certainly it can score political points by suggesting the good guys are being attacked by the bad guys. After all only bad guys would plant bombs.

The next possible thread is it could be an act of revenge looking to hurt people indiscriminately, and that most certainly would fall under the terrorism flag. It also could be a rogue person or persons that use violence simply because they lack diplomatic skills. But all and all the pattern Connecting the Dots sees is that of anger and frustration, and a bomb seems to act like that super laxative to get things moving again.

The last time bombs were used was also after military muscle was used, and it seems using direct violence against the government has come up short when it was tried. Thaksin’s very obvious anger that the military did not divide during the last Red Shirt attack on the government can substantiate why additional bombs have gone off. The situational connection is there but does not exactly match Thaksin’s style and is likely a Thaksin supporter who has the means to make bombs. It is also unlikely that Thaksin was in direct contact with the bomber.

It is too early to say if it will be a prolonged campaign of bombs as it will have an increasingly negative effect for Thaksin come election day. That is likely to happen only if Thaksin feels it is a losing battle. But already the psychological games are starting in provinces where the State of Emergency has been lifted. Rallies saying that The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) would form the next government and seek to restore Thaksin as its top if not only priority. This action at least suggests that there will be few if any more bombs, but that all depends on how the bomber is related to the PTP. If the bomber is rogue then they will continue.

Unfortunately there are too few dots at this point to make a proper assessment as to what way things will go. But for now we can suggest what the events will probably mean based on today’s set of variables. So what Connecting the Dots sees is Thaksin is testing the waters again to gage how people feel, and the results of that test will be considered when planning his next attack.

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