It is difficult to identify a reason that the Red Shirts in Thailand plan 2 rallies a month. The reasons given are far removed from their original cries, and it does leave one to wonder what is going on.
For anyone who has tossed a snowball onto the roof of a building only to discover the roof returns fire with a huge ball of snow a few seconds later will eventually understand that some actions cause a much bigger negative reaction. As they are hit with a snowball 100 times the size of what they dished out, they sooner or later will understand that some action should be avoided unless they enjoy the consequences.
Celebration of an anniversary of the days their bad behavior was put in check tends to leave a person wondering. The selection of reason still suggests they have not changed there ways and perhaps sacrificed people’s lives for themselves was planned so secondary reasons can be used in the future. Pushing beyond the limit of tolerance and not expecting some sort of repercussions suggests not thinking things out to conclusion is still chronic in Thais.
So the behavior of selecting the 10th and 19th of each month suggests unlearned lessons and still not thinking things out. The fact that their lead up behavior was the cause of the loss of life is completely overlooked, and it seems they are starting a new book on some other place than the first chapter.
But the Red Shirt leaders seem ready to do it all again and seemingly right on time as well. If past years can be used as templates for a one year cycle, 2009 was nearly identical in behavior to today’s behavior. If it continues, then March, April, and may should be peek again as was 2009 and 2010.
The only thing that for the moment that seems to be keeping the Red Shirts in relative calmness is the prospect of early elections if they behave. However Connecting the Dots does not see elections happening soon unless there is a good chance of significant political gains for the Prime Minister’s political party. The polls are gradually turning in his direction as more and more Thais get a taste of a new anti-corruption style of governing.
The unknown at the time this was composed is where the Red Shirts came from. If they were bussed in or local. But none the less the content and reasons of the rally suggest no changes in the nature of the Red Shirts, and they should be treated with the same caution as handling a cobra who is in a bad mood.