If the news events of Thaksin and the Red Shirts look familiar to you, you would be right. It seems there is a Thaksin camshaft someplace that takes about 1 year to make a complete turn. All it took was a look into what we posted last year at this time to see that once again we are in a Thaksin rising trend that seems to peek in April and May.
When you stop and think about it, many of the parameters have once again reset to the same values of last year. The state of emergency has been lifted, the number of Red Shirts is higher than anyone in government would label as comfortable, and there is the smell of politics in the air.
What is different and what is the same is added into the 2011 Thaksin experience for everyone in Thailand. What is given is there will be elections this year, but when they happen depends on behavior from Thaksin and the Red Shirts and other such trouble makers.
What is the same is Thaksin it still tying to getting his whitewashing tied to politics. Clearly this says vote for the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) even if the democrats offer better.
What is new is that Thaksin has learned to be in between countries when doing a phone in to avoid any political fallout. It is a bit like pirate radio that is being broadcast just off shore in international waters, there are no laws that can be cited or political fallout. Clearly Thaksin has learned that makes the difference between a 5 star hotel and a mud hut with carnivorous predators wandering about.
What is the same is there will be increased division every time Thaksin opens his mouth, and that tends to suggest the elections will not be early.
What can we expect for 2011 Thai politics is a bit hard to say, but whatever it is, the chances of it being negative are much more than it being positive. The fact Thaksin made a rally phone in is already has the hairs standing on people’s necks as the stress level has just been bumped up a few notches.