It was predictable to some extent. It is a bit like standing on someone’s back while wearing golf shoes, sooner or later you will be asked to get off. But if you refuse, expect conflict will erupt as a result of lacking better judgment.
To refresh some memories from 2010, the financial hardship the Red Shirts cause before the burned the place down was a major complaint from merchants just trying to make a living. To think that would not happen again is either a complete lack of brain power, or a very deliberate attempt to cause friction in a passive way.
To say this once again is Deja vu would be an understatement. Trying to look passive and innocent but still be the antagonist is getting to be another Red Shirt trade mark or signature if you prefer that term. Most certainly parking a rally on one of the 5 most busy intersections in Bangkok simply invites friction. That is why the Red Shirts selected that spot last year to put pressure on the Abhisit government. That is also the reason the Abhisit government should not fear a show of force again to send them to some vacant field or park.
No matter what reason the Red Shirts decide on, using an intersection that causes problems deliberately does not bode well to the casual bystander. But once again this is right on track and building to another conflict. This also will tend to give Prime Minister Abhisit the needed excuse to not hold a snap election.
This places Abhisit in a unique situation that is likely to backfire on the Red Shirts. Because there is a 2010 case history that can be cited with all the nastiness, Prime Minister would be well justified in bringing it to an end. Court orders would be fairly easy to get and that would insulate Prime Minister Abhisit from political fallout for doing what he must.
Needless to say, it is not hard to predict where all of this is heading, and we have not even got to Groundhog day yet.