With a sudden show of military strength labeled protecting the monarchy, there are many that think that is false advertising. Considering all the players in the political arena and that for some old habits are not forgotten, there is a reasonable reason to believe the true message from the Thai military is ‘Don’t even think about it!’
Looking at what is going on in Thailand between politics, the mood of the people, and the desire of the military, there is good reason to think a psychologist has been consulted as at the moment a psychologist’s prediction is more accurate than a Thai fortune teller.
When you step way back and look at the big picture and see the dots that were already connected over the past 10 years, you will see an arrogant Thaksin Shinawatra never yielding or listening to anyone. Once his mind is set on a goal, he becomes relentless in making it happen. Because he uses people and does his best to stay far away from the action, the dots are starting to line up that if the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) comes to power, Thaksin will simply pickup where he left off and look to reclaim what was taken from him being power and money.
Needless to say where Thaksin left off was where he managed to piss enough people off in high places to have a coup to oust him. Seeing that every indicator suggests this is where Thaksin and the PTP will want to pickup, this will create the conditions that will spawn another coup unless the new 2007 Constitution can control Thaksin. The issue with that is Thaksin never much cared for laws that stood in his way.
For all practical reasons the Thai military is sending a message to Thaksin and his supporters being only do things that benefit Thailand. Needless to say this will fall on Thaksin’s deaf ears and a repeat of the events of the last 6 years will likely happen as Thaksin has nothing to loose as he is hiding away out of reach.
So Connecting the Dots prediction is, if the PTP do not come to power the chances of a coup are near zero. If the PTP do come to power the chances of a coup are high, and much depends on how the PTP and Thaksin behave. Not much of a prediction, but nonetheless we stand behind it. If there is a coup, it will be this year so as not to let Thaksin cause too much damage as he did before.