When it comes to things you should not do in order to keep the peace, leave it to the pro Thaksin government to dive head first into doing the wrong thing. But when you are dealing with someone who is clearly psychotic and the only goal is to get back all that was taken, and pick up raping and pillaging the country where they left off, you have a formula that is not what the doctor ordered.
Connecting the Dots has not been very active lately and that is simply due to lack of time. That is not to say we don’t have a desire to post, but doing the research to get an accurate picture of what is to come does take time. However in this case, this is just one of those no brainers that most people can see coming already, and there is little need for our crystal ball.
First and most important is pointing out some basic facts to get everyone on the same page. This is all coming down to getting rid of the 2007 Constitution.
1) The 2007 Constitution is a workable Constitution. The Abhisit government proved that they could function and the country could grow under it.
2) The 2007 Constitution was designed to keep bad boy politicians in check. It is the bad boy politicians in power now and they want to get rid of the constitution.
3) The 2007 Constitution acts as a cork in a bottle that keeps future coups off the table.
When you consider those 3 points it becomes hard to see why any law abiding person would want to change it. But when you factor Thaksin Shinawatra into the picture, you understand where things are going and why.
So what will happen in this no brainer prediction. Well first off the anti Thaksin groups will once again take to the streets, that is a given. After that the pro Thaksin government will do little to stop or properly investigate violence the anti Thaksin protesters will endure from the pro Thaksin Red Shirts.
The next thing that will happen is the Thai tourist economy will once again will face the fallout of the political violence and protests. Seeing that between the events of nature and the past few years of political unrest, the tourist sector is looking like someone who has gone a few rounds with Mike Tyson.
Depending on what happens will decide what way things will go. If the political violence is too extreme and the pro Thaksin government looks unable to stop it, the military may be forced to step in and do the job to avoid a civil war. Whether that would be considered a coup or not will depend on several factors. For example there may be some provision in the Constitution that will allow the military to step in legally if the government is proving to be inept. Another possibility is the King may suggest he is displeased with the situation and the military would look to satisfy the King by intervening. The fact is there could be any number of scenarios that could unfold to quench the political fire.
As for our prediction on the time frame for all of this, logic suggests this will all happen before the end of May 2012 as that is when the first group of pro Thaksin banned politicians 5 year sit in the penalty box will expire.