As much as the Thai government officials would like to put political violence behind them, that is only a dream. That dream was shattered Sunday October 29 when an anti Thaksin / Pro Monarchy rally was over 400% of the size expected. Needless to say, as long as the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra still is influencing Thailand, the problems will happen again and again. Simply for a tire not to continually go flat, the nail must be removed and the hole must be patched.
A chain of events has been initiated in Thailand that can only mean trouble for Thailand. Call the seed of this chain of events a reality check if you would, and you would be entirely accurate. The rally that resulted from this seed is simply testament that pretending things are OK simply does not work.
Connecting the Dots has more or less been sitting on the side watching all of this unfold over the last year. The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) dominated government has set their top priority to not do anything that could endanger the government. It appears that after both the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party and the People Power Party (PPP) were dissolved, A third round of getting dissolved is totally unacceptable.
Now an active grass roots movement looks to seriously rock the boat and force the Pro Thaksin PTP to show their true colors in whatever way they can. The goal of the of the rallies and other activism is to destabilize things so much that the military will be force into conducting a Coup.
The underlying logic is sound in bringing a Coup about. All the elements are in place and all will interact as they have done in the past bringing about violence, bloodshed, and general damage to Thailand as a whole. The catalyst that is the center of this pending storm is non other than Thaksin Shinawatra. Seeing that the PTP refuses to discard Thaksin, the next chapter in Thailand’s history is already written.
There are enough underlying hot embers to ignite this fire. To name a few, The attempts of the PTP to make self serving changes to the Constitution. That is supported by their overwhelming aggression towards anyone that would look to stop that including the Thai Courts. That elevated behavior simply spells self serving reasons and goes well beyond the behavior expected.
There is a huge money losing scheme tied to propping up rice prices. It is costing Thailand more money than it has and has also caught the eye of the USA as it is big enough to influence the fair market price of rice. For the most part everyone says it is a bad idea that is bleeding Thailand. The only person that seems to like it is Thaksin, so therefore it continues.
Billions and Billions of Baht are being funneled out of Thailand and into Hong Kong. The amount of money is significant. With the PTP government failing to take any action be it real or fake simply spells that Thaksin has his hand in this. The amount of money involved is of Thaksin level corruption, and that was the seed that lead eventually to the 2006 Coup that unseated him.
There are many more examples that are significant enough to move things towards a coup. There are plenty of reasons we have not discussed. The only thing we are certain of is October has always been a volatile month in Thailand, and this year seems no different.