As for changing the Constitution and the expected difficulties, it is already apparent that it will be an up hill battle to get the votes needed. Even some of the high ranking members of the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) have expressed doubts when doing a simple reality check. But as Thaksin is Thaksin and he listens to nobody except himself, the decision to go forward with the vote has been made.
Perhaps this is one of Thaksin’s weak points where his arrogance simply overrides face value common sense. But also when it comes to Thaksin things rarely are as seen on face value. So when you start to connect the dots on this, only a very few possibilities are seen as to what is going on. So to consider them all we must take a hard look at all the motivational facts.
Thaksin has been gone now the better part of a decade, and he is still no closer to coming back than he was when he fled the country. The key legislation needed to whitewash himself has met fierce opposition and has not been passed. So it is very clear that Thaksin is growing impatient and is willing to put more financial push behind his efforts to come back.
Thaksin listens to nobody except himself nearly 100% of the time. The time he has not listened and put on other grand pushes, they have fallen flat. The reason was people told him what he wanted to hear for whatever reason. That bad information was simply his downfall and it cause him to misjudge the reality of the situation. This was most apparent in April 2009 when Thaksin supporters tried to overthrow the government by force, but misjudged the strengths of then Prime Minister Abhisit.
Thaksin knows that if he can’t get the Constitution changed, his chances for success through legal means drops to near zero. The other options he may have are very possibly tied to Royal Succession as Thailand looks to come unraveled at the seams when that process starts. Thaksin most certainly will take advantage of any opportunity that Royal Succession will present. However as nobody knows when that will be, Thaksin is not willing to wait as long as Prince Charles of England for the wheels of succession to start to turn.
So when you look at the above facts above you only see a few things that could be going on. If the chances of getting a straight forward honest vote to give the OK to change the Constitution are difficult, then the only logical conclusion is Thaksin plans to buy votes. As there are no politicians that risk getting a Red Card, there is certainly less risk.
When the 2007 Constitution was accepted by the Thai people, it was clear to see where Thaksin spent his money and influence. As virtually nobody had read the Constitution they were voting on, they simply took the advise of people they trusted. Isaan was so solidly against the Constitution, it was clear that vote buying was going on. However as over 60% of the people approved the new Constitution, that legal challenge was never made in 2007.
However we are not certain if a vote will be accepted if wide spread vote buying is apparent. That will depend entirely on the particulars that can only be known after the fact. There most certainly will be legal challenges if the unexpected yes vote wins out in the end.
The other consideration is if people are telling Thaksin what he wants to hear, they simply will follow along because no matter the outcome of the vote, their cash flow will remain in place. So to simply do as the boss says is of no risk. If they told Thaksin that the chances of passage were there, then they are just milking Thaksin for money the same as what happened in the 2009 riots. Thaksin has no choice but to trust the eyes and ears of his cronies. But in 2009 it was clear corruption was plaguing Thaksin. Money he sent to get things done just ended up in the pockets of the Red Shirt leaders of that riot. So in actuality they were encouraged by greed to get Thaksin to fork over money for dead end projects. Needless to say we expect a sequel to those 2009 riots if Thaksin gets back in power, but for now he still needs them. So simply the possibility of this playing out again is significant.