Thai political normalcy just an illusion

There has been a suggestion in the news that the political turmoil in Thailand is finally over. Investors are starting to return, street protests have ended along with several other indicators that are used to measure the political climate showing a calm. However when looking at cause and effect, we see just one thing. That one thing is Thaksin Shinawatra has been keeping a very low profile. Once he reappears, the political storm will renew as if it never ended.

The reason that Thaksin is keeping a low profile is not certain at this time. It may be for one reason or several. So as we can not yet say, we need to look at the benefit of political calm in Thailand and see how they apply to Thaksin.

As the two main things that are driving Thaksin at the moment are money and revenge, staying low for a while to lure investors into Thailand works for Thaksin. That allows the Government to get their fingers into new money once the new investors are locked into their commitment to open up shop in Thailand. For the most part the countries coffers are well tapped and being draining even more to support the failed rice scheme.

That new money can be used to support the failed rice scheme that is really all about getting votes for the next election. Thaksin hopes to be back in Thailand by then. But for that to happen all the hot political Items that are causing the political storm need to be brought back to the front burner.

So in general Thaksin has more or less accepted or at least understood that he can not come back unless he has a lot more leverage. Amnesty bills that are being floated no doubt are coming with some back room deals to get people to accept them. With there being no shortage of people facing jail time as a result of the political violence, and the courts slowly chewing through the pile of cases, people in trouble are no doubt feeling a bit more anxious and more willing to buy in.

Seeking a pardon from the King requires both a conviction and to have started serving jail time. With there being no guarantee for getting a pardon, and with most political decisions in Thailand being self serving, the outcome can fairly easily be guessed.

So the bottom line is this is simply a pause in the action. It will return to the full on war just as soon as someone feels they have enough leverage to pull stuff off.

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