Whether you think North Korea will make good on it’s threats of nuclear war or not, one thing is for certain. Governments that are directly involved are having their spin doctors and propaganda machines running overtime to leverage their positions. So it is a given that what makes it to the media already has some serious spin on it. So Connecting the Dots decided to connect some dots and see what the picture looks like when you dig down and analyze some known facts and see what it spells out.
When you just compile simple known facts they make a picture be it bad or good. Propaganda is useless when someone can analyze the same things the propaganda people are looking at. In short people that can apply logic and think for themselves are immune to propaganda providing the facts are accurate. As so little is known about North Korea, it actually makes it a bit easier to figure out.
So the first dot we must consider is the new leader of North Korea is for the most part still young being in is late 20’s. If people think about how they felt when they were in their late 20’s most people will still say they still felt bullet proof and could do anything. Although not as reckless as late teens and early 20’s high levels of testosterone still plays a big roll in decision making for males of that age. Aggression is directly linked to testosterone.
The second dot we must consider, is the isolated nature of North Korea and the 24/7 propaganda going on there, it becomes nearly impossible not to be influenced. That is particularly so when any exposure to the outside world would quickly shed doubt on the propaganda’s accuracy. So we must assume North Korea’s new leader is being influenced by the propaganda. This is much like a person with severe mental illness. Their logic continues to build on flawed logic until a psychotic state becomes apparent. So the leader of North Korea is acting on things that simply are distorted or simply are not there.
The third dot is because he is still young and in an isolated country, he likely has no understanding of the memories associated with nuclear attacks on Japan in World War II. Because of that he is more likely to use a nuclear weapon without fully understanding the consequences he will unleash on himself that for the most part spells game over. His father had the luxury of understanding the consequences of nuclear weapons being a no win scenario, it is doubtful this young leader has connected those dots.
The fourth dot is because he is a new leader, he must show his strength to remain in control. There is some reasonable doubt that because of his age and relative inexperience, he could somehow be ousted. So to lead his country into battle, he stands a better chance of staying in power. Based on where the rhetoric has been pushed with the hopes of soliciting concessions from countries who imposed sanctions on North Korea for nuclear weapons testing, he may simply be forced forward into war as the only option to stay in power. Based on the response and position of the United Nations, giving in to North Korea is not going to happen. For the most part, no rewards for undesirable behavior when it comes to nuclear weapons.
The fifth dot to consider is there are some other minor factors as well to consider like not being experienced in the game of brinkmanship and going overboard. But then again each and every time North Korea has engaged in brinkmanship, it has escalated to a new level of the game. So bringing nuclear weapons into the game, it is fairly easy to see this is the top level of the game. You either win the prize or die at this point.
So to summarize what we at Connecting the Dots see. On the question of war, the chances are greater than not war will happen. As for the likely target, South Korea will be the target. If North Korea attacks another target, they can expect counter attacks from South Korean soil so they are forced into a local war and not a distant war.
As for the use of nuclear weapons, again we must say there is a greater chance than not North Korea would use them and likely target South Korea. However when that happens every President of the United States that has occupied the Oval office after 1945 has said a nuclear attack will be met with a nuclear response.
So roughly 45 minutes after the North Korea nuclear bomb exploded in South Korea, the war would be over and an entirely new set of images for Google Earth will be needed for North Korea. The fire power in just one or 2 missiles from a Trident Submarine could do the job as each one carries eight independent warheads 100 Kilotons each. For reference The nuclear bombs dropped on Japan in World War II were 16 and 22 Kilotons.
Nuclear Bombs 100 Kilotons for the most part will flatten everything for about 1.3 miles from ground zero and do some healthy damage out to 2.28 miles from ground zero. At 8 miles the blast would easily knock you down making you feel like target practice for a fullback. Pyongyang could be totally flattened with 6 warheads spaced out across the city leaving nothing much bigger than football sized rubble. Seeing that each missile has 8 warheads, there is a comfortable margin of getting the job done in one shot. Seeing that the North Korean army tends to be bunched up all in one place, they also could quickly be sorted out the same way.
The unfortunate reality about all of this is our track record of being correct 75% to 80% of the time.