Call it what you will, but all signs point to a ‘Hell No We Won’t Go!’ attitude from Thaksin supporters can only spell more spilled blood in Thailand. Between elected officials and Red Shirt supporters taking a stance that can only be defined as contempt of court, that behavior can only be remedied with the use of force.
To say this is a sign of Thaksin’s frustration is a vast understatement. With attempts to change the Constitution in a way that will consolidate Thaksin’s grip on Thailand, expecting a legal challenge was an automatic given. Seeing that the Constitution was designed to resist consolidation of power thus avoiding the need for military intervention otherwise known as a Coup, Thaksin’s arrogance is on full display for all to see.
So taking a tally before the court ruling, First we have the Red Shirts massing at the Constitutional court that can only be seen as a bullying tactic. There is no need at all to talk about no violence before the court ruling as the Red Shirt leaders have said. That simply implies it will be after an unfavorable ruling.
Second we have the Phu Thai Party (PTP) house leaders saying they will defy a court ruling that is not to their liking. Needless to say the court will simply order them to comply and if not the court will order the police and then if needed the military to arrest them for contempt of court.
By this time there will be already full blown riots in the street by Thaksin supporters as that is what they always seem to do to try to get their own way. Needless to say this is a recipe for Martial law or a military takeover because there are few if any other options.
Technically this would not be a Coup, it would simply be the enforcement of a court order. As soon as the people that were in contempt of court were placed in jail until the court could deal with them, the Constitution would designate who is to run the country. It is entirely possible that the military could be asked to run the country for a week or so until the initial nastiness has passed.
Meanwhile Thaksin once again is far away from all the turmoil and only the Thai people will suffer. But this is to say this is a highly likely scenario if the court rules against the Thaksin regime. If the court rules another way, then all the cards are reshuffled and an entirely different set of dots comes to the front of the line. What things they will reveal depends on exactly how the court will rule. In either case it would be good for people to stock up on basic goods as a wise precaution.
