Thai Government trapped by ISA

The Thai Government is now placed in a near catch 22 situation with it’s activation of the Internal Security Act (ISA). Both pro and anti government rallies are taking place inside the ISA designated area. So if the Government goes after one, they must go after both, and that seems a no win situation for the Government.

There is one major difference between the anti Thaksin protesters, and the pro Thaksin Red Shirts. The anti Thaksin protesters have the sense of logic and reason as they are in general more highly educated as they are generally from the middle class. However the Red Shirts have demonstrated time and time again that they seem to lack the power of reason and use what is below the shoulders a whole lot more than what is above.

There are other issues here as well. As the anti Thaksin numbers continue to grow and are appearing in more and more provinces across Thailand, the Red Shirts sooner or later will get around to attacking the anti Thaksin rallies.

Another point that worries the Government is the Anti Thaksin /Government protests are actually doing the same thing as the Red Shirts did in 2010, less the burning down of things and other assorted violent acts. If the Government jumps on the anti Thaksin protesters for this relatively minor comparison to the 2010 Red Shirt riots, that for the most part that can easily be counted as once again turning their back on the Red Shirts by providing related examples of unacceptable behavior that can be used in court. Meaning that if the anti Thaksin protesters are convicted for this, then the Red Shirts must also get the same fate and worse. In the light of the backfired Amnesty bill, it is easy to see how those dots will connect.

What happens next is difficult to predict because there are so many elements at play. The most likely thing is the Red Shirts will start to attack anti government protesters in the provinces. That in turn will lead to greater and greater problems for the Government. If the Government fails to take the right action (and that is what is expected they will do), then the military may be forced to step in to remove a dysfunctional Government who refuses to step down.

However the events unfold in the next few days and weeks will be worth watching. It is wise to start taking the necessary precautions. That includes stocking up of basic supplies and plenty of popcorn.

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