Thaksin vs Suthep

For what it is worth, it seems Suthep Thaugsuban has become target number one for Thaksin Shinawatra. When you look at the news and see the ever growing list of charges against Suthep, you can’t help but have two emotions hit you at the same time. One emotion makes you want to smile and roll your eyes because the charges are such a stretch and obviously frivolous. The second emotion is anger because Thaksin has not acknowledged he is the problem and not Suthep.

With charges of murder and treason topping the list, it is hard not to connect this to a Thaksin temper tantrum. It is clear Thaksin does not care about the fallout if he goes after Suthep, as the police have already acknowledged that things will happen if he is arrested. Those things are more people will simply come out to support Suthep. There are many Thais that support what Suthep is doing, but as yet they do not have the motivation to come out. Seeing that the biggest supporting rally has been 440,000 people in Bangkok alone not counting the outer provinces, that number could easily double if Suthep is arrested.

It also seems innocent until proven guilty is being bypassed. The attempts by the Department of Special Investigations (DSI) wants to freeze the bank accounts of people that are supporting Suthep. This is classic intimidation and that too will simply swell the masses because of the underlying anger.

Other Thaksin attacks on Suthep are coming from the special crowd control police that is presently headed by the Foreign Minister. The attacks from there are also coming from a temper tantrum. So when you look at this you become aware of a very important dot between the first tier Suthep attackers and the second tier Suthep attackers.

Other than the head of the DSI and the Foreign Minister, everyone else seems to realize it is unwise to go after Suthep. Seeing that he is just the head of the group that looks to rid Thailand of corruption and Thaksin that are both synonymous, some common sense is at work. So there is an indication of how deep support for Thaksin goes. They are reading the writing on the wall that Thaksin’s rice scheme vote buying money is depleted. At the moment they can not pay everyone and that is simply bad news for the Thaksin camp.

So if the second tier goes after Suthep, and he turns out to be their new boss in the near future, that does not do a whole lot of good for their future, especially if the charges are frivolous.

Also a third powerful player is the military. If Thaksin takes the violence and heavy muscle approach, the military will be forced to step in and evict the government. For the moment the military is placing its money that the Constitution can sort this out as it was written to keep bad boy politicians in check.

when you put all of this together, Thaksin is at a disadvantage and his best chance is try to recapture enough votes to dominate Parliament, but enough people other than Suthep are pushing for drastic reforms. So Thaksin will at least make it look like they are cooperating with the reform idea, but Connecting the Dots sees just another bait and switch coming that is not unlike the Amnesty bill bait and switch.  The reason we can conclude that is people are making the assumption Thaksin has somehow changed and will play fair. Thaksin’s goals have always been in the opposite direction of reform, so seeing he says he has no reverse, you can connect your own dot to that statement.

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