As attacks on anti Government protesters become more organized with the use of military weapons, the list gets very short as to who would have access to such weapons. When you figure in who would most benefit from disrupting the protests, the list is quickly reduced to a list of one.
Much of this entry is based on past behaviors and looks to make a common sense conclusion based on the likelihood of who could and would bring people and military weapons together to attack innocent and peaceful protesters. It is those protesters who just want to end Thaksin’s influence and massive corruption that has done huge harm to Thailand’s reputation on a global scale.
The use of military weapons is a clear sign of influential involvement in attacks. You just can’t go up to your local 7-Eleven and get a grenade, but you can get one if you are part of an organized network that Thaksin has. Also the fact that two of the attackers that were caught turned out to be Red Shirt guards, it becomes more than a casual thought about Thaksin’s involvement.
So as many of the Red Shirts have already tossed their support for Thaksin, only the hard core Red Shirts remain and they are not content to sit idle. They have approached one of the Shutdown Bangkok rally sites and launched an assault on peaceful protesters. These are the same Red Shirts that followed Thaksin to try to make his own Coup in April 2009 and another attempt that burned down downtown Bangkok in 2010.
So when you combine this with continuous scare tactics from the Government to discourage protesters from attending the rally sites, you start to see the compass consistently points to Thaksin. Combine the fact that 45+ Governments have advised their citizens to avoid Bangkok and Thailand in general, it shows they recognize the pattern of escalation as well.
So when it comes right down to it, violence is one of Thaksin’s signatures, and his proxy Government has already been warned by the military that they will be held responsible for any mishaps. That is just another way of saying in advance if there is any violence, we know where it will come from.
Ironically, violence is an act of desperation that signals there are few if any other options to not be defeated by the protesters. Most everything else is falling apart at the seams. The rice farmers are in revolt because they have not been paid for their rice, Prime Minister Yingluck is under investigation for the failed rice pledging scheme. The vast majority of politicians in Thaksin’s proxy party will likely face criminal charges for their involvement in a variety of bills that violated the Constitution in one way or the other. So you can see that violence can come from both anger for getting spanked, and desperation to stay in power.
So when you add all of this up, the sum still remains Thaksin and it is very difficult to consider anyone else.