Thaksin’s two hit approach on elections

With the numbers simply not there to create a new Thai Government in the potential February 2 elections, one has to think like Thaksin to understand his logic. He is simply thinking that many times if not always it takes more than one hit of a hammer to drive a nail. It is clear Thaksin is hoping for a second election to top off Parliament’s head count.

Realistically it is the only formula that makes any type of sense when you consider the arrogant march forward by Thaksin’s proxy Government. It matches his past behavior to always go forward and have no reverse. Technically it sounds like it will work. But in a practical sense, there is more than a fair amount of roadblocks in getting to a full Parliament.

The first roadblock is there are clearly enough people that can vote in a “No Vote” to keep this from happening. Election rules require a certain percentage of votes to be elected in non contested areas. That is not likely to happen in southern Thailand where most of the shortage is from already.

The second roadblock is the entire election can be scrapped if enough problems happen during the elections, and there is near unanimous consensus that will be the case.

The third roadblock is many of the  Pheu Thai Party (PTP) candidates are likely to be convicted of various violations of the Constitution in attempts to push through bills that would favor Thaksin. That alone involves most of the future seats and all of the (PTP) seats in the last Parliament.

The fourth roadblock is many of the Pro-Thaksin votes from Isaan may not be pro-Thaksin anymore. Between the Amnesty bill that roughly 90% of all Thais rejected, and not getting paid from the rice pledging program gone bust, things politically simply are not as they were a year ago or even 6 months for that fact.

But non of that will stop Thaksin from trying. The only thing that would change that is if he saw another opportunity that had more promise. But that is not very likely as the pressure increases daily for the Government to resign and pave the way for reform prior to elections.

The argument that the Constitution does not allow for the Government to resign has no merit. The Constitution allows the King to make appointments if needed, so there truly is no excuse not to step down. One of the reasons not to step down is whoever the King would appoint, many Thais would see that as a political compass heading from the King, and most likely it will be a heading away from Thaksin.

So once again this is all self serving and self centered behavior around Thaksin. He has shown his true colors to his supporters, and they do not like what they see. No matter how you look at it, between now and the time a new Government is seated, things in Thailand will be on edge.

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