The psychology of the behavior of the attacks on Anti-Thaksin protesters is all too predictable to anyone that has the most basic understanding of psychology. Because the level of attacks is directly related to Government attack through the State of Emergency, it simply says the attack orders are coming from the same source.
If I can’t use this one, then I will use another one is the simple basic thinking behind the violent attacks. Everyone makes a similar decision everyday. If we can’t do what we planned for one reason or another, we then change to what we commonly call ‘Plan B’, and that is exactly what happened when the State of Emergency became impotent for the Government after the court ruling.
If you listened to the rhetoric coming from Chalerm Yubamrung before the court re-ruled that a State of Emergency could not be used to end peaceful and law abiding protests, you heard chest thumping and ego driven rhetoric saying how the Government was going to end the protests with the police shutting down the rally and arresting the rally leaders for heinous crimes. That was the plan of action and as long as that looked to be able to go ahead, there were no shooting or attacks with explosives on the Anti-Thaksin protesters. However that changed to Plan B after the court ruling.
With the ferocity of the attack in Trat Provence on February, 22 killing a young child and wounding about 35 people, then the next day with a bomb at Ratchprasong in Bangkok killing more and wounding another 20+, it also is an indication of level of anger in the person that ordered the attack. As both attacks used military weapons, the list is very short who has access to them and at the same time seeking a high level of carnage. The desire to hurt people who he sees are hindering his wishes is obvious. The game has changed from trying to scare people away from Anti-Thaksin rally sites to hurting and or killing them, and this escalation is a classic Thaksin signature move.
There is even the chance of Plan C being used and that is the use of the Red Shirts to attack everything that seems to be hindering Thaksin from businesses who are being negatively effected by corruption, to anti graft agencies, to the courts.
For Thaksin everything is going wrong for him at all levels.
- Thaksin’s younger sister who is Prime Minister is about to get hit with corruption charges and get impeached.
- Nearly the entire Pheu Thai Party (PTP) faces charges and looks to not be in the next elections.
- The possibility of the PTP getting dissolved is continuing to grow, and having time to jump to a new party is in question.
- The February 2 elections seem to be Dead on Arrival and new elections will need to be conducted at some point.
- Finding money to pay the rice farmers who are the core of Thaksin’s support base is not likely to happen before new elections are complete, and that translates to no votes.
- Use of the State of Emergency to remove Anti-Thaksin protesters can’t be used because the protests are within the law.
- The number of people in Thailand who oppose Thaksin, his regime, and excessive corruption seems to have past the 50% mark and continues to grow.
So with all of that and more you can understand why attacks have become violent. But a tipping point has been past where attacks on Anti-Thaksin protesters do not discourage the protesters, it now motivates them because they know they are having an effect in their desired direction. The power of the masses outweighs the power of the one as the one is outside of the country and not in direct power. The ones in direct power are starting to give thought to their personal future as it looks like many of them are heading for some level of interaction with the court as Thaksin will remain for the most part untouched.
Unfortunately the sad nature of this post was predicted in several of our posts leading up to this point. The attacks will not change the political situation and they are only an expression of anger. Because of that you can expect more attacks until Thaksin feels he is in power again.