The Red Shirts plan another rally to show displeasure in the behavior of independent bodies who sided against the Government. But looking at it closer, the protests may just be a way for Red Shirt leaders to maintain some sort of political power in the changing winds of Thailand politics as both their popularity and numbers are in decline.
The logic to attack independent bodies who independently all saw the same things in the Government’s behavior does make people want to roll their eyes. After all that is the entire reason for having independent bodies, to keep the Government in line. The Red Shirt logic is so distorted on this, it is difficult not to make this post sound satirical.
So trying to find some other underlying reason for this absurd behavior, the only thing that seems to make sense is simply trying to keep the Red Shirt movement alive. Clearly the Red Shirts took a huge popularity beating when they turned against rice farmers who were only looking for the money the Government owed them. That behavior simply amounted to kicking a man when he is down, but then again there are several You Tube clips showing the Red Shirts doing just that as violence is one of their signatures.
As the new Red Shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan already has a date with the court about a potential bail violation, there may be other personal motivators and Thaksin’s input as well. Jatuporn replaced a woman leader who had far less testosterone, so a more in your face approach may be there as well.
When you consider the Red Shirt rally is slated for April 5 and that would be about the date Prime Minister Yingluck would be indicted and removed from office, then link in the separatist movement of some Red shirts and you start to see the makings of the 2009 Red Shirt private coup formula. So the Red Shirts may simply be inviting military intervention to substantiate their position as everything seems to come to a head inside a 2 week window.
So if Jatuporn ends up behind bars for a bail violation on April 18, and the military needs to intervene at roughly the same time, it may be enough to re-fire Red Shirt support. The litmus test for that is to sample the Red Shirt propaganda in the north and northeast parts of Thailand. But if that is the case, it will be far more difficult because of the disrespect the Red Shirts showed to the rice farmers who have already turned on the Government.
What the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) Government did to the rice farmers is far worse than just being neglected. Financial and emotional wounds have been inflicted, and that memory will be around for a long time. So getting the farmers to support the Red Shirts again is wishful thinking.
In any case things will change quickly and become much more unstable in April, so it is best to simply keep up to date with the news.