The distorted rhetoric coming from Thaksin’s Red Shirts is becoming troublesome as there is a consistent push towards civil war. All the pieces of play are coming into place including threats from the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) that there will be unrest if the wheels of justice are allowed to turn. Collectively this all fits the thinking of a man obsessed and who will stop at nothing to meet his goals.
Perhaps this is one of the more ominous entries Connecting the Dots has made. All the dots have not come into view yet, but there is an educated guess where the rest will be. With our accuracy score near 80%, there is a fair level of concern that one or two more deciding moments could set significant undesirable events into motion.
Thaksin has more or less concluded that Amnesty bills, changing the Constitution or other such efforts through Parliament are not going to work. Thaksin is so despised, any attempt to let him off the hook with legislation will cause another huge public revolt similar to that which caused the birth of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
Attacks on the PDRC have mostly been with military style weapons and not home made bombs. Access to those weapons is difficult without inside help.
Over the past several years significant numbers of military armories have been raided, and only a fraction of those missing weapons have been discovered. There are also weapons being used from other regional countries including Cambodia and China.
The Red Shirts distorted story that democracy is being stolen with a judicial coup, is simply meant to anger the masses. The process of weeding out corrupt politicians has little to do with democracy other than protecting the people from corrupt politicians. Being an elected criminal and expecting to be above the law is simply how Thaksin thinks.
The noise and whining coming from the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) was expected once they got backed into a corner from their own criminal actions. The reason it was expected, it was heard before when Thaksin supporting parties made the same ‘Its not fair’ cry when they were caught and punished.
Some of the more extreme Red Shirts have expressed openly separating Thailand into two states. To be bold enough to openly say that and expose themselves to the death penalty, much talk with significant numbers of people with the same mind set must have taken place. The other possibility is some sort of mental illness had taken hold of those people.
Thaksin has been very much out of public view and silent since the Amnesty bill and bills to change the Constitution met their demise. As Thaksin is never idle and knowing his behavior patterns, it is not outside of his expected behavior to try to cause a civil war. His 2009 private Coup attempt was simply under powered. He will not make the same mistake twice as it now seems other options are limited or non existent.
These changes have been gradual and growing over the past year. They started when resistance to Thaksin’s desired changes started to be felt. The investigation into the rice pledging scheme that started a year ago seems to be the time when this all started into discussion amongst the Red Shirts. Pro Thaksin people with open eyes could see where things would sooner or later lead. With a gradual increase, no major alarms would go off and attention would be drawn to just a few people and not an entire movement.