As predictable as a splash when a stone hits water, Thaksin through his Pheu Thai Party (PTP) started attacks on the man who would approach the King as soon as the potential contact was announced. Knowing Thaksin would react this way was easy to predict, as it is the one thing Thaksin least wants.
Amongst Thaksin’s best known behaviors is he never listens to anyone except himself. So with the possibility of the King intervening in Thailand’s political crisis, Thaksin would be forced to listen and heed the King’s wishes. For Thaksin, this is about like having his parents calling him in and punishing him for bad behavior.
Without speculating on what would happen if the King got involved and what direction he may give, we look to focus on how Thaksin would react as his behavior would be mostly consistent no matter what the King said. First off Thaksin would be very angry but would not show it. He may give some comments supporting the King’s wisdom but inside he would want to break everything that could break inside a 1 kilometer radius.
The second thing Thaksin would do is try to figure out a way to get around what the King said. Most likely he would setup a situation that he could publically react to that would start to move him in his desired direction. This would be similar to his staged car bomb assassination attempt so he could call a state of Emergency thus giving him increased power to deal with his political enemies.
This would be Thaksin’s most likely behavior as he does not want to be seen going against the King. By doing that, it would extinguish any remaining support he had. Thaksin’s goal remains unchanged in that he want’s Thailand for himself. So most likely the staged event would make Thaksin look like a savior looking to one up on the King in the eyes of the Thai people. From there he would observe the reaction and stage his next move based on the outcome.
However if the King was to make direct reference to Thaksin and indicate he should go to jail and serve his time, Thaksin would clearly be in a state of Checkmate. But as Thaksin wants no part of that, his only option would be to stay low and out of sight until the King eventually died and succession was completed. That would mean no involvement in politics whatsoever during that time. Unfortunately Thaksin would not be able to stay away, and would look to do things covertly even when prohibited.
In this case Thaksin would once again be powering his own demise. Short of going to jail, anything Thaksin did other than go to jail would be seen as directly defying the King. It is universally felt by all Thais as well as non-Thais that Thaksin is the core of Thailand’s problems. So to eliminate Thaksin is to eliminate the majority of Thailand’s political problems. There would be people looking to follow in Thaksin’s footsteps, but unfortunately for them that attempt looks short lived at best.
