Over the past three years, Thaksin Shinawatra has inadvertently shown people how to keep him away from Thai politics and minimize or eliminate his influence in Thailand. Until now it was only guesswork, but now Thaksin has shown his hand and there is little doubt left as to how to neutralize him.
We can thank the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) for this information. By observing their behavior after they were elected, Thaksin through them has shown exactly what he wants to do to eliminate threats to him and his influence. So now that this information is known, there are three basic elements that must come together, and two of them seem already in place. The third is on the ‘Things to do list’, and Thaksin is pouring all his efforts into seeing that does not happen.
The First element to defeat Thaksin is psychology, and in particular along the lines of criminal profiling. A psychologist that does criminal profiling gets into the heads of criminals, and works at thinking like they do. When they do that they can predict behaviors and be waiting for the criminal when they show up to do what the criminal profiler predicted.
Ironically, that is why Connecting the Dots is so successful with our predictions about tomorrow’s news. We consistently have accurate predictions between 75% and 80% of the time by using profiling methods. Much depends on the quality of the information we get.
The Second element is courts that are not corrupt. The King has seen to it that the highest courts in Thailand are honest and do their job to the best of their ability. Without mincing words, the King has implied his face and the face of Thailand depends on their work. So to let down the King is loss of face that may be unrecoverable, and no honest Thai wants that on their shoulders.
The Third element that is on the ‘Things to do list’ is very strong anti-corruption laws that act swiftly and decisively. Waiting years for cases to get to court while the corrupt continue doing corrupt activities must end. They must quickly be removed from office so to bring bleeding to an end as quickly as possible. This has been the direction the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) has been pushing for since it formed in late 2013.
Collectively these three elements working together is what is needed to defeat Thaksin. By disallowing him the opportunity to have his tentacles of corruption take deep root, they can be removed easily.
There is a fourth element that is of minor concern, and that is corrupt officials of lower levels of Government along with corrupt civil servants that could allow Thaksin some flexibility. But that would not happen until Thaksin was back in Thailand. Also the rewards for Thaksin working at that level may not even be worth his effort.
The clues Thaksin has provided are still basic, but his desire to do what he wants and ignoring the advise of others is now his biggest Achilles heel. His impatience to get back to Thailand and force through an amnesty bill that would free him of criminal obligations, sent 90% of Thailand into revolt. Also his desire to restructure the Senate so he could consolidate power was another Achilles heel. The two most important things to Thaksin are Money and Power and in that order.
As Thaksin lacks empathy, there is little else on his list of important things. Even family does not matter to him as they are just more tools for him to use and discard. The latest example is his younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra who now faces potential significant jail time for failure to stop corruption and the loss of billions of Baht in the rice pledging scheme. It is common knowledge that was using tax payers money to buy votes and maintain a power base. The only challenge that remains is making that stick in court.