Seeing that Thaksin Shinawatra’s behavior will not be much different than in the past, addressing new things that he may not have encountered before requires a bit more thought. But in reality that is not much of an issue. The harder task is to anticipate what those new things may be in 4 to 6 months in the future.
According to the Junta, the first 3 months will be closing the gap Thaksin caused and Thaksin will be trying to keep open. That will be followed by a period of time where the political reform will become structured and put in text. We also anticipate the 2007 Constitution to become active again or be the primary framework for the next Constitution. Perhaps the Constitution will be called a Super Constitution as the 2007 Constitution had Thaksin’s behaviors in mind when it was drafted. The Next Constitution will have added strength where Thaksin focused his attacks.
This no doubt will anger Thaksin even more. After all when the second Coup happened, he got a 7.6 year setback and the reforms just add more and more time for him to get around. So in the end it may be equal to a 10 plus year setback. So Thaksin will no doubt be placing his efforts into sabotaging any political reforms by buying people and in particular the people that would look to enforce the new rules of the political road.
Also by this time Thaksin will be hard at work trying to consolidate his political base in the North and North East parts of Thailand. How well that goes will depend on what policies the Government puts in place before the next General elections. Seeing that Thaksin’s past policies broke the bank and many Thais suffered by not getting paid, it will become more of an uphill battle for Thaksin as the hurt Thais will remember. Add to that the political reforms may require stricter guidelines when implementing such policies, Thaksin may find himself impotent because the financial yield may not be worth it to him.
Past this point it becomes very difficult to know what is going to happen. So to keep our high score in tact we will simply add a disclaimer at this point simply because we really need to know what the political reforms will look like. At the time of penning this entry, they have not even started to draft them and only some ideas have been floated by anti-Thaksin groups.
There is also the concern of how much of a ruckus the Red Shirts will be causing at this time and that is a huge variable that is not properly considered in this set of predictions. The assumption of minimal or no issues from the Red Shirts was used as a base line.
With all of that said, Connecting The Dots feels fairly confident this is how Thaksin will respond to the changes he caused by his arrogance and self serving behavior. As he can not go backwards and will not compromise, he becomes somewhat easy to predict.