More than 4 months after the May 2014 coup, you may expect some easing of military muscle as Thailand trends back towards democracy. But to many Thais, they recognize that Martial law for now is the best option to let Thailand heal simply because corrupt Thais don’t want to see the end of the status quo. To let the anti-corruption laws and procedures come into effect without sabotage is the quickest and best road for Thailand.
Martial law in Thailand has been very effective in keeping the trouble makers in Thailand silent. However it does little to silence trouble makers who are on the run outside of Thailand. As expected they are starting to make noise now that the interim Government has just launched.
It is no coincidence that the trouble makers are making the most (if not all) of the noise, while others are content to let the needed reform progress to a functional level. Shielded threats like don’t make hasty decisions as there could be fallout, or the economy could be effected are crafted to imply things will get worse if you do implement the changes. The reality is the trouble makers will see fallout directed at them and their personal ill gotten economy will take a significant hit.
Thaksin has made it known through his actions that he does not plan to give up and will use every means at his disposal to stop the reforms that are squarely directed at removing his influence. As before those include attempts to bribe people, however that will fall short as the way the charter is written is the military has the final say and can reject any measure that is too watered down.
Acts of terrorism are also possible to cause instability in the Government, but with the effectiveness of the military and no influence from the private sector to buy or otherwise bribe officers, those terrorists will very quickly be brought under control and links to the mastermind will be established.
This all is following our predictions and we did not see the need to write much since our last entry. The particulars of who is doing what is somewhat irrelevant with the exception of Thaksin. There is little doubt that the people making trouble are in some way connected to Thaksin, although as per usual he will provide several layers of insulation to make himself look innocent.
The direction the Government seems to be moving is not to let Thaksin have a chance. To completely shut him out is clearly the game plan. As Thaksin is waiting for Martial law to be lifted, we suspect Martial law will be modified to exclude tourists as they are likely to not cause more than the usual trouble with occasional drunken or obnoxious behavior. This modification is very likely as the crackdown on misuse of tourist visas seems to be making significant headway leaving only genuine tourists with tourist visas.