It is starting to come right down to digging in against Thaksin’s insistence that he is still a player in Thailand’s politics. But the fact of the matter is that is unlikely that will happen. There are a series of dots that spell that out very clearly.
As Thaksin is highly predictable and knowing that sooner or later he would want to get his hands in the works was a given. He would employ various tactics through the court of public opinion to make it seem like it was the right thing to do. However in reality the only way to move Thailand forward is to move past Thaksin and his self serving interests.
There are a series of dots that show that the foundation of moving Thailand forward does not include Thaksin, and it is obvious that was thought out knowing just how Thaksin would react. Because of this it is very easy to know what Thaksin’s next move will be and there are increasing indications that Thaksin has already turned up the heat on the back burner.
The first dot that says no to Thaksin is Article 44 of the interim charter. To summerize what article 44 is, think of the ability of a steam roller to shut off your computer. It puts the power of ‘NO’ firmly in Prayut’s hands. So if Thaksin in any way tries to side step Prayut and work with people under Prayut, it is game over for the attempt and perhaps game over for the person Thaksin seduced as well.
The second key dot is the way the new charter is coming together, there will be quick sudden and painful political death for any politician who steps out of line. That will quickly be followed by jail time in just a few months and not years away as it is now. In other words, the charter will become toxic to Thaksin and anyone who puts their own interests before the interests of the Thai people.
The third dot is the focus on dismantling Thaksin’s political machine. Legal action against pro-Thaksin politicians and cronies that had been delayed by deliberate foot dragging by other pro-Thaksin cronies is now moving forward. Without going into specific details, that movement is just another dot that says no to Thaksin.
As for the fore mentioned sign that Thaksin is turning up the heat on the back burner, there is a clear increase in political noise against the junta despite polling that shows Thais are happy with the way things are progressing. So both logic and history point to this is all tied to Thaksin. The time of this matches past uprisings by Thaksin supporters. In other words big noises from small groups.
Unfortunately this does show us Thaksin’s next play if he is not allowed to partake in Thai politics. He will work at ramping up unrest against the interim Government in an attempt to destabilize them thus forcing leverage. That in turn brings us to the fourth and final dot, and that dot is martial law remains in place knowing that Thaksin would eventually turn to using unrest.